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New strategies to fix the housing crisis

When Labor came to power in May 2022, housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne were already higher than in almost all other developed world cities. Since May 2022, the crisis has deepened as dwelling and rental prices have continued to rise, along with interest rates, thus generating a serious rental crisis and a slide in the affordability of detached houses, especially in Sydney and Melbourne.

Though much less of a focus for Governments than the rental crisis, the first homeowner affordability crisis is nonetheless of huge significance. For younger households wanting family friendly housing and to get a foot on the property ownership ladder, their inability to do so is a catastrophe.

By 2021, the share of households in Sydney headed by a 30–39-year-old who were renting had reached 53%, and 37% for 40–49-year-old household heads. (Note that census data also refers to household heads as reference persons.)

Melbourne was trending in a similar direction, though from a lower base. The situation has worsened since 2021 as housing prices have continued to rise.

The result is that, for many of these households, home ownership is a receding dream. It is being replaced by continuing rental. Given how important home ownership is in retirement years, it implies a spectre of financial insecurity in this phase of life.

Federal and state governments have committed massive funds, especially to fix the rental crisis. Yet despite this commitment, building permit approvals for medium and high-density dwellings in Sydney and Melbourne were lower in 2023 than a decade ago. They continued to fall in 2024.

How could this be?

The dominant explanation, held by governments, planners and most expert commentators is that current zoning laws and building approval procedures are restricting development. If they were loosened, so it is argued, much more medium density housing will result in middle suburban areas. Similarly, if constraints on high rise apartment buildings are eased, many more of these projects will start.

According to this dominant perspective, both resident and new migrant demand can be satisfied, notwithstanding the huge increase in the migrant influx in 2022 and 2023. Net overseas migration to Australia was 433,150 in 2022 and 547,267 in 2023. This compares with near 250,000 each year prior to the 2019-2020 pandemic (which was itself a steep increase from the long-term average from 1950 to 2005 of 88,700)1. Some 67.5% of this net influx reside in NSW and Victoria (which comprise 57% of Australia’s population), the great majority locating in Sydney and Melbourne.

However, irrespective of zoning laws and building approvals, the densifying strategy is not working. We show that in the current setting developers cannot make a profit from providing affordable rental accommodation, either from medium density projects in the middle suburbs (the ‘missing middle’) or from high-rise inner-city apartment projects. In the case of the ‘missing middle’, developers can’t build such units or town houses because of escalating site costs, mainly due to the high price of the land on which they have to be built.

Site costs continued to escalate because of competition for detached housing not just from aspiring first homeowners. The escalation is also from a large cohort of financially strong upgraders who are switching houses in pursuit of the tax-free capital gains flowing from the price escalation of higher end houses. Investors, too, are adding to the demand. In addition, there is a lagged demand for the purchase of detached housing from earlier arrived migrants. This latter source is very important but has not been recognized in the housing literature.

This competition is occurring at a time when just over half the detached housing stock in Sydney and Melbourne is held by household heads aged 50+. A remarkably small share of these households is exiting or downsizing, thus gumming up the supply of established houses.

In the case of high-rise apartments, developers cannot make a profit unless they target the high end of the apartment market.

What to do?

The key goal must be to restore the housing market to equilibrium. The factors contributing to the current crisis have been building up over many years. Therefore, resolving the crisis will take time, and will need investments and policies. These will transform the housing industry from small scale operators to larger companies that can operate with scale and improve productivity and leverage advanced manufacturing techniques to allow more pre-fabrication.

Solving the crisis will also need an adjustment to the current reliance on interest rates in managing inflation pressures.

We also need to lift the level of thinking on our understanding of how people choose and use housing, in particular, understanding the typical flows that occur through different types of housing stock at different life stages. When a housing market is in equilibrium this can help planners to identify ‘stuck’ market sectors and to shape policies to improve normal flow.

In the short term, the only realistic strategy likely to soften the rental crisis is a slowdown in the immigration influx. This is because recently arrived migrants are the main source of new rental demand in both Sydney and Melbourne.

Some industry and government sources argue that any such curb would be counter-productive because migrant tradies are needed to build the extra dwellings. We show that this belief is wrong. Few migrant tradies are currently being visaed. This will not change because Australia’s construction trade qualification system will not allow it. The focus must be on domestic training.

Slowing immigration, at least in the short term, will not solve the first homeowner crisis. Relatively few recently arrived migrants have the resources to compete in the detached housing markets of Sydney and Melbourne. However, they can and do compete successfully a decade or so after arrival. We show that those arriving before 2016 are currently the biggest source of demand in these markets and they dominate the ranks of buyers in the fringe suburbs of Melbourne.

Even if migration stops, the impact of this lagged demand will be felt for years. The huge wedge of migrants locating over the years 2022, 2023 (and probably 2024) will give an unprecedented push to this demand.

The only realistic medium-term option that can significantly provide for this need is to open up the respective city fringes for detached housing. This can be delivered at a fraction of the cost of medium and high-density housing in the middle and inner suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne. It is not being vi utilized because of deliberate policy decisions by the Victorian and New South Wales Government to restrict outer suburban expansion.

Though fringe developers, needless to say, agree with this stance, they face almost uniform opposition from State Governments, housing experts and commentators. One exception is Alan Kohler who, in his recent Quarterly Essay, reached the same conclusion as we do, if by a slightly different route.2

Therefore, the strategies to fix the housing crisis need to cover all the levers that can be applied – opening the fringe, new industry policy, reducing migration levels, improved workforce training, changes to monetary policy, new transport links, innovation in construction techniques and adoption of advanced manufacturing methods – all these factors have a role to play in restoring our housing system to equilibrium.

Recommendations

At the outset, we highlighted the likelihood of the housing crisis both worsening and also lasting longer when policy makers take a narrow lens to the problem. It will also worsen when recommendations are made based on an incomplete and inadequate understanding of the housing market.

To build a sound evidence base for proposed policy initiatives the first step is to build an understanding of the current situation. This requires thinking about housing as a system with interconnected parts, and to develop nuanced thinking. For example, buyers are not a single group – the options available to buyers, the preferred type of housing and location vary across first home buyers, upgraders, re-locaters and downsizers.

The second step is to work out, at a system level, what we want our future to look like. The system in focus here needs to be the overall dynamics of the housing market, not specific arbitrary benchmarks. We suggest a goal for the future of the housing market in Australia is a system that is close to equilibrium, with home prices rising each year, but below inflation. This would slowly improve housing affordability and avoid the economic calamity that would arise from a severe collapse in home prices.

The third step is to put forward hypotheses as to how we can move towards our broad goal. We believe that initiatives must address issues of both demand (across all market segments) and supply (including workforce, productivity improvements and capacity), as well as macro-economic policy settings and regulatory settings.

We have prepared a number of recommendations to tackle the crisis gripping Melbourne and Sydney, which can help restore housing affordability and equilibrium to the housing market.

Recommendation 1 – Stop adding fuel to the fire.

We have highlighted the long-term nature of the problems of housing affordability, including the fact that the majority of housing demand over the next 10-15 years is already locked in through the lag effect of migration.

Actions are required now to give the housing system a chance to return to equilibrium in the future. This means that net overseas migration (NOM) must be reduced very significantly. While it will take around 10 years for the impact of recent levels of high migration to wash through the system, significantly lower levels of NOM will reduce short term pressure on rental markets and allow the housing market to reach equilibrium in the longer term.

Recommendation 2 – Recognise the impact of the migration lag effect and fast track urban fringe development.

The scale of the housing crisis is such that ‘the least worst’ option to improve supply of affordable house and land options is to allow increased urban development on the city fringe.

It is important to recognise that a significant component of the response to the housing shortages that followed the return of servicemen after WW2 and high levels of European migration was relatively unrestricted development on the city fringe.

There is a need for State governments to commit to increased investment in infrastructure in the fringe The goal should be that 50% or more of new builds will take place on the fringe, until we approach equilibrium in the housing market.

Fringe development is not ideal, however not doing this now will make the housing crisis worse for many years longer.

This will require ditching the dominant ‘up not out’ policies of the NSW and Victorian Governments. It must include opening up the precinct planning system so that new developments can proceed much quicker than is presently the case. Also, there will have to be a commitment to increased government investment in infrastructure in the fringe.

Recommendation 3 – Increase the capacity of the non-unionised builders to construct multiple medium density developments simultaneously

Recognising the small builder is typically the most productive provider of housing (producing housing at substantially lower cost than large builders with unionised workforces), they need to be supported with improved access to capital to fund multiple jobs simultaneously to accelerate the number of dwelling units that can be completed each year.

Recommendation 4 – Explore the opportunities to increase productivity in the sector through investment in advanced manufacturing that can prefabricate modules, reducing the need for skilled labour on building sites.

Government R&D funding and programs can focus on technology to reduce time, cost and material wastage in construction. This funding can not only improve housing outcomes but also develop expertise that can be sold around the world.

Recommendation 5 – Reduce the transaction costs and increase local downsize options for empty nesters to make the choice to downsize from a detached dwelling to a townhouse or other medium density development across middle ring suburbs.

Importantly, this means a decentralised approach for encouraging town house and low-rise flats and apartments, rather than clustering them into specific precincts that suit planners but not the prospective buyers.

Recommendation 6 – Improve transport links between the capital cities and major regional cities so that upgraders have an extended choice of areas in which to purchase, reducing asset inflation pressures on high amenity detached dwelling stock.

Recommendation 7 – Reduce reliance on the blunt instrument of interest rate management to control inflation.

Give the Reserve Bank the power to vary the GST rate within a pre-set range. This will allow both interest rates and GST to be used as tools to manage the levels of economic activity and spread the impact of these controls across the community, rather than hitting home buyers only. With less distortion of the capital market the costs for developers in building new homes is reduced.

 

1 Calculated from Table 3 in J. Phillipa and J. Simon Davies, Migration: A Quick Guide to the Statistics, Parliament of Australia, January 2017
2 Alan Kohler, The Great Divide, Quarterly Essay No. 92

 

David McCloskey is CEO of Mimesis Labs, a digital technology business, and a Research Associate of the School of Media, Film and Journalism ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision Making + Society at Monash University and is a member of the Australian Population Research Institute (TAPRI).

Bob Birrell (PhD Princeton – Sociology) was the founding director of the Centre for Population and Urban Research at Monash University and is currently the head of the Australian Population Research Institute (TAPRI), an independent think tank on population and related issues.

 

24 Comments
Ian
August 20, 2024

The problem we face in Australia comes from the fact that everyone wants to live in 3 major cities! More fringe development might allow some cheaper housing, but it will only make the current cities get even bigger, and surely most of us will recognize that as a major issue. Isn't traffic just going to get worse? What we really need to do is make living outside the major cities much more attractive. A government with enough foresight could buy up land in 10 locations between Melbourne and Sydney, then build a fast train connecting the lot. Would you prefer to live in a brand new city of 500K with a shorter travel time to Sydney or Melbourne or in the suburban fringe of either? The huge cost of the fast train would be paid back by the sale of the much cheaper land, and I guarantee the outcome would be much more liveable, because I have seen how it works in Japan! The key of course is to plan ahead and not allow developers to take all the profit from the huge capital expenditure required. But as if a government would have that sort of foresight.....

Rick
August 12, 2024

Getting rid of the 50% CGT discount would help. Maybe a 2 year honeymoon period and then faze it out 10% per year over the following 5 years providing a 7 year transition period allowing time for investment reallocation. Less tax avoidance, less investor speculation and less upward pressure on prices.
Negative gearing is unique to Australia!
The Union effect is well documented.

Abel
August 10, 2024

Attempting to fix the housing problem alone is likely to cause problems in other areas. It is like solving an ecosystem problem with many interacting issues (population, infrastructure, economics, etc).

Australia has too few "level 2 cities", where people can move to and have good employment opportunities, housing options and access to services. That's why most people want to live in the main capital cities.

V. Fisher
August 09, 2024

Successive Australian federal governments have become deeply complicit in a form of insider trading in regards to housing prices.
Ultimately, government policies control house prices.
Many Australian politicians have multiple properties, obviously it's in their personal interests to maintain ever increasing house prices.
It must be understood that high house prices only benefit those with more than one house.
(Without including inheritances)

John M
August 12, 2024

Why do people try to play at the edges of the housing crisis. Why is the ALP hell bent on attacking Superannuation and leave the housing market alone. Attacking super just brings in more revenue. Housing restructure can solve the housing crisis and bring more revenue to the Govt
In Australia, a significant proportion of residential properties are used as second dwellings by families. These are often referred to as, secondary residences, or investment properties. The precise number of such homes varies by source, but estimates suggest that a considerable portion of the housing market is occupied by these types of properties.
As of the latest reports, approximately 10-15% of residential properties in Australia are classified as secondary dwellings or investment properties that are not used as primary residences.
In metropolitan areas, especially in cities like Sydney and Melbourne, this figure can be higher due to the prevalence of investment properties and high-value real estate.
Vacant Homes and Holiday Properties
A notable subset of these second dwellings are homes that remain vacant for extended periods, such as holiday homes and certain investment properties.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), around 10% of residential properties are considered vacant for more than six months of the year.
This category includes holiday homes and investment properties that are left unoccupied, reflecting a broader trend of property being held for capital gain rather than immediate rental income or personal use.
Impact of Abolishing Negative Gearing
Negative gearing allows property investors to deduct the costs of owning an investment property
Abolishing negative gearing could lead to a substantial increase in tax revenue. Estimates suggest that this could generate between $3 billion to $5 billion annually in additional tax revenue for the Australian government.
The removal of negative gearing would lead to a cooling of property prices

James
August 09, 2024

On the Sunshine Coast where I live, an important part of the problem is evident. Most of the building occurring is the knocking down (often of multi million dollar perfectly good homes) to build even bigger, more expensive ones. This ubiquitous practice is both wasteful and ties up tradies and builders who could be utilised building new homes, adding to the total supply equation.

It also reflects the unavailability of desirable new land and the skewed financial benefit of people sinking their money into an asset the government has limited means to get their hands on. A lot needs to change but our overly acrimonious, partisan political system is a major impediment to good housing policy. Proposed changes are politicised and used as wedge rather than cooperation to build a better future.

G
August 09, 2024

“ home ownership is a receding dream. It is being replaced by continuing rental.”
How about radically revising rental laws and practices with the aim to provide housing instead of protecting ownership?

David
August 09, 2024

In 1907, the basic weekly wage was promulgated, being set at 2 pounds, 2 shillings a week. In the era of gold money, this was 2 gold sovereigns and 2 sterling silver shillings. In gold terms this was a little under half an oz of gold, as it takes about 4.25 sovereigns to make an oz of gold. Fast forward to now. The minimum wage in NSW is something like $880 per week, which will buy you just one sovereign's worth of gold, while the median wage of $1,300 will get you not much more that one and a half sovereigns. In terms of gold, wages have gone down over the 120 years or so. Houses on the other hand have stayed pretty steady, the median house in Sydney requiring about 400 oz of gold to purchase, similar today as it was 20 years ago. However in the last few months, they are also trending down in term of gold, and are closer to 350 oz., as the price of gold has been outstripping houses.
The fact that wages have not been paid in gold, but paper or plastic has something to do with affordability of houses, but their physical supply is clearly an issue, and I warm to the issue of producing them in factories to minimise the expensive site labour, but the sites themselves are a difficult problem.

michael
August 09, 2024

I think the time has come for a new type of housing, something much cheaper than the typical 2 br unit.
There needs to be something for the self funded, low income person, that is not a tent or back seat of the car.
Cabin in a van park comes to mind, but there may be better options, perhaps something completely new. Council regulations seem to be the handbrake that is stuck on hard.

Dudley
August 09, 2024

Recommendation 0 – Make Save-to-buy competitive with Borrow-to-buy.

Increase real interest rates through deflation to eliminate taxes from imaginary (inflationary) component of interest.

While waiting to Save-to-buy the full price of a home, Cash-on-the-knocker, Save-to-buy causes more people to use less housing, reversing the trend of fewer people per area of housing and less money creation needed to cause deflation results in decreasing mortgage totals and smaller home prices.

Then the money saved can be applied to more productive investments.

Matt
August 09, 2024

No mention of government taxes and charges included in the purchase price of new dwellings, estimates of which come in at over $100,000 for an average dwelling (eg GST; Council costs for DA, infrastructure connections; Stamp Duty). Governments love the rivers of gold they quietly extract from property as their charges continually increase, then provide token but highly publicised "relief" in the form of FHOG or stamp duty concessions. Perhaps if governments only extracted rivers of silver, the cost of housing would be more affordable. The underlying issue is governments' failure to control their own spending resulting in a never ending requirement to collect higher and higher taxes. Revenue from property taxes are among if not the highest revenue generators for both State governments and local councils.

The housing situation is wholely and solely a result of a failure of government policies at all levels of government. Calls for any fixes to include anything punitive or that somehow attribute blame to a section of the community (ie those over 50 gumming up supply by, OMG, choosing to live in their own homes!) completely misses the point that governments can resolve the situation by reversing policies that have caused the situation in the first place. One wonders what ideology is behind publicising solutions that involve blaming or dividing the community for a problem created by government.

Brian
August 08, 2024

I agree with you. High and medium density development has not been able to increase affordability because site prices are inflated by the number of potential dwellings that can be built. In addition, high density development is accompanied by diseconomies of scale resulting from big ticket infrastructure projects such as road and rail tunnels, underground electricity substations, traffic lights on all major intersections etc. Fringe development, although it has its drawbacks, is more economic than the high and medium density alternative. In addition, corporations and government agencies could distribute offices around the suburbs (move the workplaces to the people, not people to the workplaces), so average commute time could be more reasonable.

Graham W
August 08, 2024

Downsizing is an aim for many but bridging finance is necessary. Sellers will not accept an offer subject to sale of an existing property. It is not feasible to sell and then look to purchase in a hot market. An opportunity for the government to provide this surely.

margaret gillett
August 08, 2024

I just do not get that we can spend to getedals but not houses. Sweeden can build townhouses for essential workers to a sustainable energy standard in under 4 months ( fully completed and close to infrastructure) why can't Australia?

John Bone
August 08, 2024

Great report.
Realistic and timely.

Errol
August 08, 2024

With respect, this article is so far behind the curve. The immigration, shortage of trades and unions impacting housing costs are all well known and are not new problems.

Also, why is the article only focused on Sydney and Melbourne? The markets in Brisbane and Adelaide and many other parts of the country are experiencing the same supply issues.

Andrew Smith
August 09, 2024

Agree, also bypasses key points which is surprising considering both have worked in a higher education context?

Further, any 'housing analysis' on demand and supply needs to avoid headline data and focus on student numbers & postcodes vs supply including types esp. homestays, shares, hostels etc., but the latter is unknown?

Issues on the article:

1. The NOM Net OS Migration, border movement churn or barometer, was expanded in 2006 to 12/16+ month residency test; ABS has warned against using with earlier data under different methodology.
2. Meanwhile the same swept up more students and long term temporary residents, included in estimated population and inflating headline numbers and working age cohort, but they have work restrictions and mislabelled as immigrants.
3. Most avoid analysis avoids or does not acknowledge the NOM catch up after Covid border shut downs.
4. Does not highlight the more significant issue or 'elephant in the room' i.e. ageing permanent cohort of 7+ million boomer 'bomb' & oldies in or transitioning to retirement.
5. To alleviate budget stress from the latter, international students etc. counted in via NOM border 'churn' are deemed 'net financial contributors' eg. paying $billions in GST to support budgets with increasing old age dependency ratios, then majority depart.
6. Median house values have stagnated over past decade, and apartment median values and prices have slumped; does not suggest high demand?
7. The 'big die off' of the 7+ million oldies and boomers is about to start and continue for a generation, followed by low fertility generations; don't get caught playing pass the property parcel?

Cam
August 08, 2024

The need for more workers from migration can be replaced by Freeing up public service workers. We currently have 8 separate transport departments managing car regos, driver's licences, etc. Why not have 1 national one. There are so many other areas with unnecessary duplication across the 8 states and territories. This would also save $10s of billions each year for Governments. There must be some areas of Government that are very easy to convert into being run at a national level.
Older Australians are acutely aware that the family home is not counted for the age pension, so downsizing costs them part or all of the pension they receive. Many are also aware that being closer to a good hospital could be critical if they have a health issue. Including the family home in the age pension asset test would resolve the first issue. Having equal quality health care outside of the capital cities would also help.
Younger workers considering moving out of capital cities soon find out that in many industries they get paid a lot less for the same work. We don't tolerate this at a gender level. We should not tolerate this at a geographical level either. Equal pay for equal work at this level would see more people happy to move out of capital cities, easing housing affordability and also congestion, infrastructure pressures, etc.

Luhar
August 08, 2024

Seems strange that the Melbourne government’s polices which have improved affordability are not mentioned here, given that they have worked thus far.

CC
August 08, 2024

Seriously ??

Rob
August 08, 2024

With respect - we have a shortage of tradies as there is rampant competition between "big build, cost plus" Government or Semi Govt stupidity and Housing. That has not only driven up the cost of trades in the cities to circa $100 ph, there is a heavily unionised workforce on bigger projects when any cursory observation would reveal half on their mobile phones. Productivity has cratered. Turn the "big build" and migration taps off, till it is under control and we have tradies looking for work

michael
August 09, 2024

I agree, but you didn't mention: educating more tradies; FIFO mine work has soaked up a lot of tradies.
The apprenticeship/TAFE system needs a major overhaul. Apprentices are being left in limbo when their employer goes broke. There are a lot of problems.

Lily
August 08, 2024

The easiest solution is to encourage people build/lease out granny flats or extra rooms in the house - BY not treating these rentals as incomes.
By this I mean no income tax on the rents, no capital gains tax when selling, and not income testing for age pension.

Geoff D
August 08, 2024

Seriously??

 

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