The market continues to swerve with each new development in the Middle East. This can be a scary time for investors which increases the chance of making mistakes. These are three quotes I come back to when markets are volatile.
“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”
Mike Tyson
Yes, I am talking about Mike Tyson. The one with the face tattoo. And no, Mike Tyson is not a famous investor. He is a boxer. Many opponents found themselves weak in the knees and staggering around after climbing in the ring with Iron Mike. This may sound familiar for investors who have been through the depths of a bear market.
Like an overmatched boxer, many investors quickly shift into fight or flight mode. That means getting as much money out of the share market as quickly as possible. Many of these investors don’t have a plan other than trying to get as rich as possible in the short-term. And when “everybody knows” the market will keep falling, the way to have the most money possible in the short-term is to sell.
Having a plan and an investment strategy can make a world of difference in these situations. Understanding where you want to get to over the long-term and what it will take to get you there is what keeps you invested. And staying in the game is critical because when “everybody knows” something is going to happen, it is likely the market will do the opposite.
"The biggest risk of all is not taking one."
Mellody Hobson
Mellody Hobson’s quote doubles as investing and life advice. We hear a lot about how risky it is to invest. Mostly, we get this advice from people who don’t invest. A more sensible approach is to reframe your thought process to focus on the risk of not achieving your goals.
When doing that it becomes obvious that risk is not the short-term volatility of growth assets like shares. It is not taking on enough short-term volatility to achieve the returns you need. This is risk tolerance vs. risk capacity. Framing risk around your goals rather than your reaction to a hypothetical scenario is the pathway to achieving them.
"The investor's chief problem-- even his worst enemy-- is likely to be himself."
Benjamin Graham
Investing successfully means trying to act as rationally as possible while knowing that complete rationality is an unachievable goal. There are many different emotions wrapped up in investing. Describing it as greed and fear falls to capture the full spectrum of those emotions.
It is not greed for greed’s sake but the desire to create a better future and relieve the burden on loved ones. Fear is not just the fear of diminishing account balances. It is the fear of failing your family. Not giving them the future you desperately want to provide.
Given the complexity of the emotions around investing it is necessary to create structure and actively pursue rationality. Write down your goals, strategy and approach. Seek out people to keep you accountable. Implement speed bumps to slow down your decision making. Behavioural discipline can be a source of edge or advantage for investors but takes as much work as analysing companies.
Acknowledging that we all carry baggage that influences the decisions we make is a good place to start. A bit of self-reflection goes a long way in designing a process to overcome that baggage.
Mark Lamonica
Also in this week's edition...
This week I tackle the emerging prediction market which some brokers claim will be bigger than the share market. Ben Graham isn’t around so I can’t ask him what he thinks about prediction markets – but I can guess his view.
Much of the commentary about the economic impact of the Iran war has focused on oil prices. Jason Teh digs a little deeper and looks at the shortage of refined products.
Gold skyrocketed in 2025 as investors piled into the precious metal. John Reade and Ray Jia look at the gold supply and the ability of miners to react to the increased demand.
As markets sink, investors have continued to pour money into ETFs. Andrew Jones from Vanguard outlines which ETFs are on the shopping list.
Policymaking is front of mind as we approach the budget while dealing with elevated inflation. Tony Dillon lays out the complexity of compromise in a divided electorate.
Issues in the global private credit sector are all over the front pages as funds limit redemptions. Geoff Saab digs a little deeper.
Roy Green explores a new report showing the drop off in Australian innovation.
This week's white paper from Yarra Capital Management ponders whether the RBA's latest rate hike is one of the biggest policy errors Australia has ever seen.
Curated by Mark Lamonica and Leisa Bell
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Weekend market update
Two articles from Morningstar this week. I put ASX shares through rigorous income growth criteria and found the 20 shares that met my standards. My colleague Sim took a critical view of ETFs and identified some red flags for investors.
From Diana Mousina, AMP
When I write our weekly market update I like to get a head start on it early in the week. But in these current times, this exercise would prove pointless as every day offers more twists and turns in the Middle East conflict and rhetoric from Trump. A negative start to the weak due to signals from Trump that he would strike Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure, no signs of a broad reopening in the Strait of Hormuz and further deployment of 2,000 US soldiers of the elite US Army’s 82nd Airborne Division turned into mid-week confidence on signs of “constructive conversations” between the US and Iran and Trump indicating a pause on further strikes until March 27th. But Iran rejected the US “15-point plan” which included demands for Iran to dismantle its nuclear facilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz in return for a reduction in sanctions. Iran wants reparations for war damages, recognition of authority over the Strait of Hormuz and security guarantees. Earlier today, Trump indicated that he would not engage in further strikes and give the Iranians until April 6th to open the Strait of Hormuz. For now, it does appear that both sides want to make a deal, as there are constraints on all the players in the conflict.
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Trump is constrained by a falling (and now record low) approval rating, partly driven by rising gasoline prices, This is a massive problem for him heading into the November mid-term elections as the razor-thin Republican majority in the Senate is likely to be erased which will likely see the Democrats impeaching Trump and the Republicans not being able to pass many policies. The biggest issue for voters is affordability and higher gas prices for consumers will are another hit for affordability.
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Iran is constrained by a weakening regime and pressure from China to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which China relies on for oil and other commodity supplies. Iran, in turn, heavily relies on China for bilaterial trade.
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Israel is constrained by need the US for military equipment and support for its war in Gaza, so needs to keep Trump onside. So, it is in everyone’s interests for this conflict to be short. However, that’s not how wars often work as negotiations break down or there is a miscalculation. So it could still get worse from here (although this is not our base case). The oil price is hovering between $90-$100/barrel in recent weeks, around a doubling from January levels. Whilst this is a huge spike, it would be more troubling for global growth if prices were over $125/barrel.
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The key for global growth is to watch passageway through the Strait of Hormuz. There has been news that “Iran friendlies” vessels carrying LPG may be able to pass. Vessels crossings data shows basically zero vessels passing through the Strait. The hit to oil supply isn’t quite as large as the ~20% that usually passes the Strait and this is because there are offsets from the release of oil from strategic petroleum reserves, pipeline bypass channels and de-sanctioned Russian/Iranian oil. So this leaves around a 5% supply hit for oil. This is still a very large hit to supply.
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Of course the longer this goes on, oil reserves will dwindle and shortages will become more of a problem and the oil price will spike higher. While this is possible if negotiations break down over coming weeks, our base case is that the conflict is resolved by around mid-April. This should hopefully see the flow of oil resume, but it may take a while to get back to pre-war prices (when there was technically an oversupply of oil) and in the interim, the damage has already been done through higher prices and increasing inflation expectations. Trump and Xi’s meeting was also changed to May 14-15th after being delayed due to the war, so this could be a sign that Trump wants the war to end by then!?
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Higher oil prices will be passed through the supply chain as crude oil has many uses after it is refined (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG, everyday plastics, chemicals, fertiliser, pesticides and asphalt). So the impact to inflation is high from the first-round impacts which we can start to see at the petrol stations but more will become evident from second-order impacts and the longer that oil supply is constrained, the longer that inflation will remain high.
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Are we about to get a “fuel surcharge” added to some good and services bills in Australia? This has been the chatter this week as businesses are starting to factor in higher petrol costs. According to Energy and Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen around 8% of total petrol stations in Australia are out of some kind of fuel. While there has been no announcement around fuel rationing or a broad-based lockdown announcement, this is a possibility if things don’t improve in coming weeks as oil supplies decline. For now it looks like Australia is negotiating with Asian countries to continue shipping crude oil to Australia in exchange for our commodities like LNG. Although, Cyclone Narelle across Australia’s WA’s north-west resulted in 3 shut LNG plants which provide about 8% of global supply which is another factor that will boost gas prices after Qatar LNG facilities were hit by Iran.
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After all the talk in recent weeks about whether the government was adding to inflation or not, news that the government asked the Fair Work Commission to give minimum and award wage workers above-inflation pay rises this year is another blow to the RBA because if enacted and productivity stays sluggish it means higher inflation. The better decision would have been an increase to wages at current inflation rates or the same as last year (at 3.5% which is actually still high relative to wage history). Of course no one wants to see their real wages go down but high minimum wage increases in recent years have been part of the current inflation problem because it influences broader wage demands and inflation expectations and will just mean higher RBA interest rates down the track.
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Sharemarkets this week bounced around a bit based on rhetoric surrounding the war. US shares fell by 0.5% (and is down ~7% from its pre-War level) which is a modest drop. Australian shares are up 0.5% with a lift in materials, utilities, consumer discretionary and energy but a fall in tech, communications services and financials. Australian shares are down by around 8% from their highs. After noticeable outperformance earlier in the year, European shares have been hit harder due to likely higher gas prices, because of the reliance on imports.
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