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21 May 2022
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The traditional single-period measurement tools such as P/E or EV/EBITDA do not allow for cashflows looking out many years, which are needed to value great companies of the future such as Xilinx, Nvidia and Qualcomm.
Tesla has stunned the doubters, especially those shorting the stock. To understand the share prices of these disruptive companies, look to the big picture of changes to whole-of-world issues.
Investors in Tesla at current prices are not neglecting the obvious. Disruptors come at a high price because they do not carry the sunk costs of infrastructure and outdated distribution models.
Disruption investing is not the same as investing in technology. It's about knowing which companies are best placed to capitalise on the next big trends, and the winners are not always obvious.
With Apple through to US$1 trillion, and Google, Amazon, Microsoft hot on its heels, could these megacaps be experiencing ‘runaway returns to scale’?
A lot has been said about the fun things the Apple watch can do for you, and very little about the information you provide to it. This highly personalised data has Apple and app developers salivating.
Policy proposals allow young people to access their super for a home bought from older people who put the money back into super. It helps some first buyers into a home earlier but it may push up prices.
In this environment, safe-haven assets like Government bonds act as a diversifier given the uncorrelated nature to equities during periods of risk-off, while offering a yield above term deposit rates.
A key attribute of great investors is the ability to abstract away the specifics of a particular domain, leaving only the important underlying principles upon which great investments can be made.
The Transfer Balance Cap limits the tax concessions available in super pension funds, removing the need for large, compulsory drawdowns. Plus there are no requirements to draw money out of an accumulation fund.
Companies tend to pre-position weak results ahead of 30 June, leading to earnings downgrades. The next two months will be critical for investors as a shift from ‘great expectations’ to ‘clear explanations’ gets underway.
We may have been extremely unlucky with the unforgiving weather plaguing the East Coast of Australia this year. However, on the economic front we are by many measures in a strong position relative to the rest of the world.
Discounts on LICs and LITs vary with market conditions, and many prominent managers have seen the value of their assets fall as well as discount widen. There may be opportunities for gains if discounts narrow.