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Tuesday, 19 October 2021
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We tend to think of the 'stockmarket' as one beast, but it pays to know the drivers of the different parts, especially global versus Australian stocks. The outlook favours global due to better sector exposure.
Investing in commodities can deliver uncorrelated returns on the back of demographic trends, but there are many ways to gain exposure and the risks of each must be understood.
Rebalacing can feel counterintuitive as you sell your winners and buy more losers. A reasonable compromise is to rebalance every 12 months, which might offer capital gains tax advantages.
Most S&P500 companies are doing well with recent reported earnings above expectations. In the tech sector, the Big Five (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, Alphabet) have also diversified their income sources.
The major global bond index currently offers a yield of only 1.6% at a time when a rising rate cycle may be starting. There are better risk-return opportunities elsewhere.
The popular 'cyclically-adjusted' Shiller PE ratio is historically high and this is often quoted as a sign the market is overvalued, but consider the impact of the current low interest rates.
Rather than compare results against APRA's benchmark, large super funds which failed the YFYS performance test are using another measure such as a CPI+ target, with more favourable results to show their members.
RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, says that surging house prices are not as important as full employment, but a previous Governor, Glenn Stevens, had other priorities, putting the "elevated level of house prices" first.
Two prominent fund managers with strongly opposing views and techniques. Cathie Wood thinks Tesla is going to US$3,000, Rob Arnott says it's already a bubble at US$750. They debate valuing growth and disruption.
Four key materials are required for battery production as we head towards 30X the number of electric cars. It opens exciting opportunities for Australian companies as the country aims to become a regional hub.
Estimating the value of a company based on a multiple of earnings is a common investment analysis technique, but it is often useless. Multiples do a poor job of valuing the best growth businesses, like Microsoft.
The ability to adapt to change makes a company more likely to sustain today’s profitability. There are five value chains plus a focus on cashflow and asset growth that the 'transition winners' are adopting.
At the start of COVID, the Government allowed early access to super, but in a strange twist, others were permitted to leave money in tax-advantaged super for another year. It helped the wealthy and should not be repeated.