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18 September 2025
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The 60/40 portfolio has performed poorly during the recent period of high inflation. With peak inflation likely behind us, here's a stock-take on the year so far and what it might imply for portfolios going forward.
The RBA and interest rate markets are underestimating inflationary pressures. Combined with a government intent on increasing wages, there's a risk of entrenching higher inflation in Australia compared to elsewhere.
In the wake of persistent inflation, the Fed may jams down hard on the monetary brakes, leading to upward moves in bond yields. There may be a significant correction in equity markets, but what would the RBA do?
The inflation genie is still in the bottle. While wage growth remains low and the US Fed maintains current settings, we should expect the RBA's accommodatory approach to continue.
The refusal of both sides of politics not only to adopt ‘microeconomic reform’ but in some cases reverse reforms, looms as a bigger driver of unemployment than any failure to fine-tune macro or monetary policy.
Despite the unknowns, Australia is vulnerable as a medium-sized open economy dependent on smoothly functioning international trade. It was already under stress before the onset of the crisis.
Super and housing dwarf every other asset class in Australia, and they’ve both become too big to fail. Can they continue to grow at current rates, and if so, what are the implications for the economy, work and markets?
With rising home prices and falling affordability, political leaders preach reform. But asset disclosures show many are heavily invested in property - raising doubts about whose interests housing policy really protects.
Retiring with debt may have advantages. Maintaining a mortgage on the family home can provide a line of credit in retirement for flexibility, extra income, and a DIY reverse mortgage strategy.
The ASX is shrinking not by accident, but by design. A governance model that rewards detachment over ownership is driving capital into private hands and weakening public markets.
The AI boom has sparked investor euphoria, but under the surface, US big tech is showing cracks - slowing growth, surging capex, and fading dominance signal it's time to question conventional tech optimism.
Trade is now a strategic weapon, reshaping the investment landscape. In this environment, resilient companies - those capable of absorbing shocks and defending margins - are best positioned to outperform.
The next generation of wealth creation is likely to emerge from founder influenced firms that combine scalable models with long-term alignment. Four signs can alert investors to these companies before the crowds.