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27 July 2024
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The 60/40 portfolio has performed poorly during the recent period of high inflation. With peak inflation likely behind us, here's a stock-take on the year so far and what it might imply for portfolios going forward.
The RBA and interest rate markets are underestimating inflationary pressures. Combined with a government intent on increasing wages, there's a risk of entrenching higher inflation in Australia compared to elsewhere.
In the wake of persistent inflation, the Fed may jams down hard on the monetary brakes, leading to upward moves in bond yields. There may be a significant correction in equity markets, but what would the RBA do?
The inflation genie is still in the bottle. While wage growth remains low and the US Fed maintains current settings, we should expect the RBA's accommodatory approach to continue.
The refusal of both sides of politics not only to adopt ‘microeconomic reform’ but in some cases reverse reforms, looms as a bigger driver of unemployment than any failure to fine-tune macro or monetary policy.
Despite the unknowns, Australia is vulnerable as a medium-sized open economy dependent on smoothly functioning international trade. It was already under stress before the onset of the crisis.
Rising prices have a big impact on retirement outcomes yet our most common gauge of inflation – the consumer price index – misses several important household costs for retirees.
A self managed super fund can offer investors more control and, in many cases, greater choice over their retirement investments. But are the extra costs and admin burdens worth it?
Facing up to a terminal diagnosis can also lead to worries regarding financial stability. People in this situation could have a number of options regarding their super assets.
Australia faces a wave of retirees at a stage where the superannuation system is still maturing. Better and fairer policy on the role of the family home as a retirement asset might help.
The dominance of mega-cap stocks in the US has led to strong index performance and a new wave of passive investors. Australia's markets might not be so suited to this approach.
Global and Australian private credit are different and shouldn't be lumped together. Investors also need to be wary of more complex and lower quality securities as the asset class grows.
People are hard-wired to make poor financial decisions under conditions of uncertainty. A new research paper explores whether a strategy built to exploit these biases in financial markets could succeed.