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4 February 2026
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The 60/40 portfolio has performed poorly during the recent period of high inflation. With peak inflation likely behind us, here's a stock-take on the year so far and what it might imply for portfolios going forward.
The RBA and interest rate markets are underestimating inflationary pressures. Combined with a government intent on increasing wages, there's a risk of entrenching higher inflation in Australia compared to elsewhere.
In the wake of persistent inflation, the Fed may jams down hard on the monetary brakes, leading to upward moves in bond yields. There may be a significant correction in equity markets, but what would the RBA do?
The inflation genie is still in the bottle. While wage growth remains low and the US Fed maintains current settings, we should expect the RBA's accommodatory approach to continue.
The refusal of both sides of politics not only to adopt ‘microeconomic reform’ but in some cases reverse reforms, looms as a bigger driver of unemployment than any failure to fine-tune macro or monetary policy.
Despite the unknowns, Australia is vulnerable as a medium-sized open economy dependent on smoothly functioning international trade. It was already under stress before the onset of the crisis.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The latest draft legislation may be an improvement but it still has the whiff of a wealth tax about it. The question remains whether a golden opportunity for simpler and fairer super tax reform has been missed.
Your super isn’t a bank account you own; it’s a trust you merely benefit from. So why would the Division 296 tax you personally on assets, income and gains you legally don’t own?
Inflation consistently undermines wealth, even in low-inflation environments. Whether or not it returns to target, investors must protect portfolios from its compounding impact on future living standards.
Global equity markets have experienced stellar returns in 2024 and 2025 led, in large part, by the boom in AI. Which sector could be the next star in global markets? This names three future winners.
The case for listed infrastructure is built on stable earnings and cash flows, which have sustained 4% dividend yields across cycles and supported consistent, inflation-linked long-term returns.
The US stock market sits in prolonged bubble territory, driven by AI enthusiasm. History suggests eventual mean reversion, reminding investors to weigh potential risks against current market optimism.