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Home / Author: Tim Carleton

Tim Carleton

Who will get left holding the banks?

For the first time in decades, the Big 4 banks have real competition in home loans. Macquarie is quickly gain market share, which threatens both the earnings and dividends of the major banks in the years ahead.

ASX200 'handbrake' means passive investors could miss out

The dominance of mega-cap stocks in the US has led to strong index performance and a new wave of passive investors. Australia's markets might not be so suited to this approach.

Will the Royal Commission end our debt obsession?

The tightening of credit conditions for home lending driven by the Royal Commission has not fully translated into aggregate statistics, and the slowdown may already be worse than we realise.

The voting machine and the weighing machine

Long-term earnings matter the most to stock prices over the long run. Trying to time short-term fluctuations is folly, but we can pick the times when movements are disharmonious with earnings.

Are there opportunities for an active manager in an efficient market?

Liquid, large share markets are generally efficient, but events at a company, sector or economy-wide level can create opportunities when the market over reacts. It pays to be patient.

Investing conservatively vs conventionally: is there a difference?

The ASX’s top 20 companies as a group performed poorly last year, due in part to the cost of purchasing those shares. This begs the question, just because an investment is conventional, is it by definition conservative?

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Economy

Has Australia wasted the last 30 years?

The 20 years after Peter Costello left Treasury have been deemed wasted...by Peter Costello. The missed opportunities for Australia began long before.  

Retirement

Navigating the next stage of life in retirement

Retirement planning is more than just saving enough money. Long-term care needs, housing choices, and social networks are just as critical for a happy and enjoyable life.

Strategy

Showcasing your value in the age of AI shortcuts

Knowledge is becoming commoditized in the age of artificial intelligence but experience, taste, and judgement are still at a premium.

Planning

Financial advice as the pathway to economic security

Financial advice can lead to improved financial literacy, a healthier super balance and a higher standard of living in retirement. Is now the time to give yourself the gift of financial advice?

Economy

The overlooked driver of energy inflation

The impact of energy policy on inflation in Australia is often overlooked. Transitioning to renewable energy can lead to inflated costs that affect the entire economy and productivity growth.

Economy

A 2026 rotation story: Europe’s undervalued small caps

In 2026, Europe is poised for a 'Goldilocks' scenario with cooling inflation and lower rates, driven by fiscal stimulus. Small caps offer an attractive entry point before capital rotation.

Investment strategies

What we do when things go up (a lot)

Recent price spikes, particularly gold's surge, trigger behavioral responses like availability bias, storytelling, extrapolation, and FOMO, which create self-reinforcing feedback loops influencing investor sentiment and market trends.

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