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Tim Carleton

ASX200 'handbrake' means passive investors could miss out

The dominance of mega-cap stocks in the US has led to strong index performance and a new wave of passive investors. Australia's markets might not be so suited to this approach.

Will the Royal Commission end our debt obsession?

The tightening of credit conditions for home lending driven by the Royal Commission has not fully translated into aggregate statistics, and the slowdown may already be worse than we realise.

The voting machine and the weighing machine

Long-term earnings matter the most to stock prices over the long run. Trying to time short-term fluctuations is folly, but we can pick the times when movements are disharmonious with earnings.

Are there opportunities for an active manager in an efficient market?

Liquid, large share markets are generally efficient, but events at a company, sector or economy-wide level can create opportunities when the market over reacts. It pays to be patient.

Investing conservatively vs conventionally: is there a difference?

The ASX’s top 20 companies as a group performed poorly last year, due in part to the cost of purchasing those shares. This begs the question, just because an investment is conventional, is it by definition conservative?

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Weekly Editorial

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 639

Thank you for the hundreds of responses to our Reader Survey and to maximise the sample size, we’re leaving it open until this Sunday. Here is an overview of the results so far.

  • 27 November 2025
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Investment strategies

Where to hide in the ‘everything bubble’

It might not be quite an ‘everything bubble’ but there’s froth in many assets, not just US stocks, right now. It might be time to stress test your portfolio and consider assets that could offer you shelter if trouble is coming.

Investment strategies

The ultimate investing hack: dividend growth stocks

Investors often fall prey to ‘amygdala hijacks,’ letting emotion trump reason. By focusing on dividend-growth with stocks instead of volatile prices, you can steady your mindset and let compounding do the work. 

Investment strategies

CBA or global banks?

CBA’s recent pullback highlights single-stock risk. Global banks trade at lower P/Es with rising earnings and dividends, offering investors both income potential and long-term value beyond the local market.

Investment strategies

Global dividends rising, but Australia lags

Global dividend growth surged in the third quarter, with median growth of almost 6%. Australia was a notable exception as dividends fell, thanks to flagging mining company payouts.

Economy

I called inflation's rise and fall and here's what's next

In 2020, I warned that surging US money supply growth would spark inflation. By early 2023, I said US money supply was dropping dramatically and that meant inflation would decline. Here's what happens next.

Superannuation

Are excessive super funds giving Australia “Dutch Disease”?

The irony is profound: a system designed to secure Australians’ futures may be systematically dismantling the economic diversity necessary for long-term prosperity.

Investment strategies

Could your children pass the inheritance ‘stress test’?

You devote years of your life working, saving and investing, striving to build a legacy that will outlive you. Before any wealth moves to the next generation, here are six questions every parent should ask themselves.

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