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Home / Author: Tim Carleton

Tim Carleton

High quality businesses are on sale

Beneath the dominance of the ASX's largest stocks, much of the market has been left behind. High-quality companies are now trading at levels rarely seen, offering opportunities for investors willing to look deeper.

Who will get left holding the banks?

For the first time in decades, the Big 4 banks have real competition in home loans. Macquarie is quickly gain market share, which threatens both the earnings and dividends of the major banks in the years ahead.

ASX200 'handbrake' means passive investors could miss out

The dominance of mega-cap stocks in the US has led to strong index performance and a new wave of passive investors. Australia's markets might not be so suited to this approach.

Will the Royal Commission end our debt obsession?

The tightening of credit conditions for home lending driven by the Royal Commission has not fully translated into aggregate statistics, and the slowdown may already be worse than we realise.

The voting machine and the weighing machine

Long-term earnings matter the most to stock prices over the long run. Trying to time short-term fluctuations is folly, but we can pick the times when movements are disharmonious with earnings.

Are there opportunities for an active manager in an efficient market?

Liquid, large share markets are generally efficient, but events at a company, sector or economy-wide level can create opportunities when the market over reacts. It pays to be patient.

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Retirement

The retirement scorecard: how many of these questions can you answer?

From the maths of retirement, estimating spending and picking the right asset allocation to survive a poor decade, here are the questions every retiree – current or future – should be able to answer for themselves.

2026 is not 1999

The US market looks eerily similar to the dot-com era with soaring AI spending and tech giants dominating returns. But one difference separates today’s boom from the dot-com bubble and it could determine what happens next.

Planning

Taxing time for trusts

Trusts are facing a shake-up, but an overhaul may not be necessary. Families can explore restructuring strategies that preserve succession and the asset protection benefits that have made these structures valuable.

Economy

Why the US economy is stronger than you might think

War, inflation and higher rates were expected to derail America. But has the market got it wrong? Three forces are driving the economy beyond expectations, revealing implications for stock prices and portfolio positioning.

Gold

How much trust is in your portfolio?

Everyone talks about diversifying assets. Far fewer think about diversifying trust. As inflation, debt and market assumptions collide, the question is whether portfolios need greater protection from unexpected outcomes.

Retirement

Retirement in reality - 7 months in

Seven months into retirement, I'm still uncovering surprises. This month was spent reflecting on the slow pace of health change, the myth of neatly scheduled part-time work and the unexpected persistence of retirement guilt.

The new geography of technology leadership

The next chapter of technology may not belong to the companies or business models many expect. As the landscape shifts, some opportunities are emerging in places that remain surprisingly overlooked by global markets.

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