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Yarra Capital Management

Navigating a frustrating environment

Australia is entering FY27 on shaky footing, with policy uncertainty, a weakening consumer, housing market pressures and slowing growth creating a difficult environment for investors. This outlook shares 10 actionable ideas for the year ahead.

Data may finally be breaking: RBA to pivot

New data suggest the Australian economy is losing momentum faster than expected, with unemployment rising and growth slowing ahead of recent shocks. With inflation pressures contained and policy tightening already biting, the case for an RBA pivot is strengthening.

Budget 2026-27: Good intentions. Unintended outcomes?

An assessment of the impact of the 2026-27 Budget, and the risk that in the attempt to engender inter-generational fairness that we create new distortions that ultimately could lead to lower capital investment, lower economic growth.

RBA rate hike: A study in policy error

Choosing to tighten into large and persistent exogenous economic shocks could well prove to be one of the biggest policy errors the RBA has made in the inflation targeting era.

Multi-sector credit: High yields, big opportunities in 2026

In 2026, investors can likely expect higher volatility associated with a maturing business cycle. As that volatility nears the horizon, investors can benefit from a more optimal mix of active management focused on higher risk-adjusted returns.

Structural shifts in AI, energy and defence shaping tomorrow’s returns

Reporting season is stressful, but for Johnny Russell (Portfolio Manager, Yarra Global Share Fund), it also serves as a reminder of the importance of stepping back to reflect on broader themes shaping the world around us.

Latest Updates

Fixed interest

Higher yields are creating opportunities in global bonds

Bond markets are adjusting to a new reality, but not in the ways investors expect. With markets repricing and capital competing for attention, investors may need to rethink where resilience and opportunity lie. 

Economy

Are we in a recession?

What if the warning signs are already everywhere? From supermarket aisles to company failures, investors are being bombarded with recession signals. But most face a different risk that can be just as dangerous for portfolios. 

SMSF strategies

Meg on SMSFs - Division 296 actuarial certificates

The tax bill might be yours, but the event that caused it may not be. A key Division 296 calculation can sometimes attribute earnings in ways that many SMSF trustees won't instinctively expect or fully appreciate.

Property

The first impact of negative gearing reform is not the tax bill

Negative gearing changes formally begin in 2027, but the first consequences may already be here. A subtle shift is quietly influencing who can borrow, how much they can access and which property strategies still stack up.

Economy

The oil market is running out of easy answers

The biggest threat to markets may not be what investors are watching. The numbers have stopped adding up and supply is harder to measure, with forecasts becoming simple guesses. A more fragile reality is being masked.

Investment strategies

The state of investor knowledge in Australia

Australians are investing more than ever, yet a surprising divide is emerging between those building wealth effectively and those making costly mistakes. Surprisingly, the gap has little to do with income, age or starting capital.

Taxation

Complexity and capital gains

A case study shows that the ‘30% minimum CGT’ is a poorly conceived tax that adds significant complexity to an already over-complex system. A less complicated model would create a much fairer progressive tax scale.

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