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7 October 2025
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US has already defaulted many times, fear is driving property prices not net income, more on lifetime annuities, a personal take on China, and the dynamics of super.
The US Treasury defaulted three times on its treasury bills in 1979, but the problem is primarily one of politics, not insolvency. Another default may be enough of a shock to get the parties together to work on real solutions.
Like any investment, residential property must be bought at the right price and the right time, not based on the need to get into the market quickly due to the Fear Of Missing Out. And the costs will be higher than expected.
Lifetime annuities have some attractive features but remain neglected by most retirees. There are rational reasons for this, which the annuity industry has to overcome if the product is to address more longevity worries.
China is so complex and varied that few people can understand the whole picture, but on a third visit over two decades, it's possible to see changes, many of which are for the better.
Australian superannuation is a highly dynamic industry, as this review of 2013-2033 shows. For many retirees, institutional funds, whether industry or retail funds, have not been able to compete with the attraction of SMSFs.
This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.
An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.
LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.
Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?
Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?
This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.