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Edition: 419

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 419 with weekend update

  • 5 August 2021
  • 3

It's tempting to assume our good investments are due to skill and poor investments are due to bad luck. Of course, it's not like that. Every investment decision is made with imperfect knowledge, and it is often luck whether the favourable elements outweigh the problems. What do Hamish Douglass, Warren Buffett, Annie Duke and Daniel Kahneman think?

Who dares loses: Buffett on luck, taxes and a challenge

Imagine it is 24 hours before you are born and you can set all the rules: any political system, any economic structure, any social edifice. One catch: you don't know which of the nine billion people on earth will be you.

Importance of remaining rational and why Bitcoin is worthless

The case for strong stock markets is convincing. The problem is that the case for a major correction (20% or more) in the next 12 months is also convincing. And why Bitcoin is absurd and defies logic in a market bubble.

10 big ideas for 2021 - a midyear update

Last November, the heads of four investment platforms identified the key themes they anticipated would guide investment decisions in 2021. With the year half over, we see how they’ve played out and check the outlook.

Four reasons many Australians will work until they're dead

Despite the maturing of the super system, 70% of retirees rely in part or full on the age pension. Access to pensions will become more restrictive and fewer people will have options such as a reverse mortgage.

Economic recovery and its impact on commercial real estate

Globally, demand for quality industrial property has driven the strongest period of growth the commercial logistics sector has experienced in many years, but what's happening with office and retail sectors?

'Wealth of Experience' podcast - markets rinse and repeat

The next episode of Wealth of Experience with Graham Hand and Peter Warnes covers Top 20 stocks then and now, Brambles, defining retirement income, performance fees and Nick Griffin’s ideas and outlook.

Reader Survey on retirement income

There has been an excellent response in reader engagement and comments to our recent articles and podcasts on retirement income. Tell us what you think in this short survey and the results will go to Treasury.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Raising the GST to 15%

Treasurer Jim Chalmers aims to tackle tax reform but faces challenges. Previous reviews struggled due to political sensitivities, highlighting the need for comprehensive and politically feasible change.

7 examples of how the new super tax will be calculated

You've no doubt heard about Division 296. These case studies show what people at various levels above the $3 million threshold might need to pay the ATO, with examples ranging from under $500 to more than $35,000.

The revolt against Baby Boomer wealth

The $3m super tax could be put down to the Government needing money and the wealthy being easy targets. It’s deeper than that though and this looks at the factors behind the policy and why more taxes on the wealthy are coming.

Are franking credits hurting Australia’s economy?

Business investment and per capita GDP have languished over the past decade and the Labor Government is conducting inquiries to find out why. Franking credits should be part of the debate about our stalling economy.

Here's what should replace the $3 million super tax

With Div. 296 looming, is there a smarter way to tax superannuation? This proposes a fairer, income-linked alternative that respects compounding, ensures predictability, and avoids taxing unrealised capital gains. 

The rubbery numbers behind super tax concessions

In selling the super tax, Labor has repeated Treasury claims of there being $50 billion in super tax concessions annually, mostly flowing to high-income earners. This figure is vastly overstated.

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