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Edition: 419

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 419 with weekend update

  • 5 August 2021
  • 3

It's tempting to assume our good investments are due to skill and poor investments are due to bad luck. Of course, it's not like that. Every investment decision is made with imperfect knowledge, and it is often luck whether the favourable elements outweigh the problems. What do Hamish Douglass, Warren Buffett, Annie Duke and Daniel Kahneman think?

Who dares loses: Buffett on luck, taxes and a challenge

Imagine it is 24 hours before you are born and you can set all the rules: any political system, any economic structure, any social edifice. One catch: you don't know which of the nine billion people on earth will be you.

Importance of remaining rational and why Bitcoin is worthless

The case for strong stock markets is convincing. The problem is that the case for a major correction (20% or more) in the next 12 months is also convincing. And why Bitcoin is absurd and defies logic in a market bubble.

10 big ideas for 2021 - a midyear update

Last November, the heads of four investment platforms identified the key themes they anticipated would guide investment decisions in 2021. With the year half over, we see how they’ve played out and check the outlook.

Four reasons many Australians will work until they're dead

Despite the maturing of the super system, 70% of retirees rely in part or full on the age pension. Access to pensions will become more restrictive and fewer people will have options such as a reverse mortgage.

Economic recovery and its impact on commercial real estate

Globally, demand for quality industrial property has driven the strongest period of growth the commercial logistics sector has experienced in many years, but what's happening with office and retail sectors?

'Wealth of Experience' podcast - markets rinse and repeat

The next episode of Wealth of Experience with Graham Hand and Peter Warnes covers Top 20 stocks then and now, Brambles, defining retirement income, performance fees and Nick Griffin’s ideas and outlook.

Reader Survey on retirement income

There has been an excellent response in reader engagement and comments to our recent articles and podcasts on retirement income. Tell us what you think in this short survey and the results will go to Treasury.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Why spending more in early retirement can improve lifetime income

Conventional wisdom encourages retirees to preserve superannuation. But if those likely to qualify for the Age Pension later in life spend a little more today, it may deliver higher lifetime income and a more stable retirement.

Testamentary trusts have secured the CGT exemption

Treasury’s latest CGT reform draft delivers a win for testamentary trusts and deceased estates, exempting estate-derived gains from the 30% floor. However, questions on death and divorce rollovers remain unresolved.

Meg on SMSFs: What do we think about reversionary pensions these days?

Reversionary pensions have long been a staple of SMSF estate planning, but are they still the best option? Meg Heffron revisits a once-clear favourite and asks whether changing super rules have shifted the balance.

Is it time to bail on Australian stocks?

For generations, Australian investors have backed banks, miners and dividends. But has that loyalty come at a cost? A look at the numbers raises an uncomfortable question about where future returns will come from.

How does the 4% rule stack up?

The 4% rule has long been retirement's gold standard. But after a difficult period for investors, fresh analysis suggests a more conservative approach may significantly improve the chances of making savings last.

Testamentary trusts survived the trust tax. The drafting battle has just begun.

The fight over testamentary trusts looked settled. Then the draft legislation arrived. Hidden in a technical detail is a question that could force many families to rethink wills they thought were already future-proof.

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