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Edition: 419

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 419 with weekend update

  • 5 August 2021
  • 3

It's tempting to assume our good investments are due to skill and poor investments are due to bad luck. Of course, it's not like that. Every investment decision is made with imperfect knowledge, and it is often luck whether the favourable elements outweigh the problems. What do Hamish Douglass, Warren Buffett, Annie Duke and Daniel Kahneman think?

Who dares loses: Buffett on luck, taxes and a challenge

Imagine it is 24 hours before you are born and you can set all the rules: any political system, any economic structure, any social edifice. One catch: you don't know which of the nine billion people on earth will be you.

Importance of remaining rational and why Bitcoin is worthless

The case for strong stock markets is convincing. The problem is that the case for a major correction (20% or more) in the next 12 months is also convincing. And why Bitcoin is absurd and defies logic in a market bubble.

10 big ideas for 2021 - a midyear update

Last November, the heads of four investment platforms identified the key themes they anticipated would guide investment decisions in 2021. With the year half over, we see how they’ve played out and check the outlook.

Four reasons many Australians will work until they're dead

Despite the maturing of the super system, 70% of retirees rely in part or full on the age pension. Access to pensions will become more restrictive and fewer people will have options such as a reverse mortgage.

Economic recovery and its impact on commercial real estate

Globally, demand for quality industrial property has driven the strongest period of growth the commercial logistics sector has experienced in many years, but what's happening with office and retail sectors?

'Wealth of Experience' podcast - markets rinse and repeat

The next episode of Wealth of Experience with Graham Hand and Peter Warnes covers Top 20 stocks then and now, Brambles, defining retirement income, performance fees and Nick Griffin’s ideas and outlook.

Reader Survey on retirement income

There has been an excellent response in reader engagement and comments to our recent articles and podcasts on retirement income. Tell us what you think in this short survey and the results will go to Treasury.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Ray Dalio on 2025’s real story, Trump, and what’s next

The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.

Making sense of record high markets as the world catches fire

The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.

3 ways to fix Australia’s affordability crisis

Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.

Is there a better way to reform the CGT discount?

The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.

How cutting the CGT discount could help rebalance housing market

A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 648 with weekend update

This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.

  • 5 February 2026

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