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Edition: 488

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 488 with weekend update

  • 15 December 2022
  • 1

In tennis, it's often the player who makes the least mistakes that wins. Applying this to markets, investors should seek to avoid making silly decisions rather than pursuing brilliance. Here are some practical ways to achieve this aim.

The distortions in our retirement system

The system has incentives that run counter to policy objectives, especially for the age pension taper rate, family home and access to super before it's assessed for the age pension. Here's how to fix these problems.

Wealth management reimagined

The financial advice sector is experiencing a form of market failure where demand for the type of advice now favoured by the industry is limited by the cost of supplying it. Here's how the industry can best move forward.

Time to announce the X-factor for 2022

What is the X-factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2022? It's time to announce the winner.

What baked-in inflation means for portfolio construction

A difficult macroeconomic backdrop has reinforced the need to maintain a well-balanced portfolio in navigating one of the most unpredictable markets in history. We look at stocks that should prove resilient in choppy markets.

Will investors start tuning in to Spotify again?

Spotify shares have fallen around two-thirds from their peak in 2021. Here are four key reasons why Spotify can materially increase its earning power in future years, making the stock significantly undervalued at present.

How likely is a US recession? About 75%

The odds favour a US recession, albeit a mild one. If Australia can manage an orderly reduction of household debt, then it will give the RBA more flexibility to increase interest rates and bring them in line with US rates.

The legal fallout when a carer becomes a partner

Recently, the NSW Court of Appeal reversed an earlier ruling and declared a live-in carer was in fact a defacto partner. Significant financial consequences for the family could have been avoided with preventative action.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Making sense of record high markets as the world catches fire

The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.

3 ways to fix Australia’s affordability crisis

Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.

Is there a better way to reform the CGT discount?

The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.

How cutting the CGT discount could help rebalance housing market

A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 648 with weekend update

This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.

  • 5 February 2026

It’s economic reality, not fear-based momentum, driving gold higher

Most commentary on gold's recent record highs focus on it being the product of fear or speculative momentum. That's ignoring the deeper structural drivers at play. 

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