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Edition: 488

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 488 with weekend update

  • 15 December 2022
  • 1

In tennis, it's often the player who makes the least mistakes that wins. Applying this to markets, investors should seek to avoid making silly decisions rather than pursuing brilliance. Here are some practical ways to achieve this aim.

The distortions in our retirement system

The system has incentives that run counter to policy objectives, especially for the age pension taper rate, family home and access to super before it's assessed for the age pension. Here's how to fix these problems.

Wealth management reimagined

The financial advice sector is experiencing a form of market failure where demand for the type of advice now favoured by the industry is limited by the cost of supplying it. Here's how the industry can best move forward.

Time to announce the X-factor for 2022

What is the X-factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2022? It's time to announce the winner.

What baked-in inflation means for portfolio construction

A difficult macroeconomic backdrop has reinforced the need to maintain a well-balanced portfolio in navigating one of the most unpredictable markets in history. We look at stocks that should prove resilient in choppy markets.

Will investors start tuning in to Spotify again?

Spotify shares have fallen around two-thirds from their peak in 2021. Here are four key reasons why Spotify can materially increase its earning power in future years, making the stock significantly undervalued at present.

How likely is a US recession? About 75%

The odds favour a US recession, albeit a mild one. If Australia can manage an orderly reduction of household debt, then it will give the RBA more flexibility to increase interest rates and bring them in line with US rates.

The legal fallout when a carer becomes a partner

Recently, the NSW Court of Appeal reversed an earlier ruling and declared a live-in carer was in fact a defacto partner. Significant financial consequences for the family could have been avoided with preventative action.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?

Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 627 with weekend update

This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.

  • 4 September 2025

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