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Edition: 643

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 643 with weekend update

  • 1 January 2026
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Here are my 20 favourite Firstlinks articles from 2025, including ‘Which generation had it the toughest?’, ‘The case for the $3 million super tax’, and ‘Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly’.

Get set for a bumpy 2026

At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.

History says US market outperformance versus Australia will turn

Much has been made of how US markets, especially the NASDAQ, have significantly outperformed the ASX over the past two decades. History suggests the pendulum will swing back once again in Australia's favour.

Announcing the X-Factor for 2025

What is the X-Factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2025? It's time to select the winner.

The illusion of progress

What is progress? Is it GDP growth? Increasing wealth? New and improving technology? This argues that our measure of progress has become warped, and we're heading backwards rather than forwards.

Our favourite summer reads

Summer is a great time to catch up on a good book. Here is a list of books on leadership, investing, and well-being for those looking to learn, reflect, and gain inspiration over the holiday season.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Why spending more in early retirement can improve lifetime income

Conventional wisdom encourages retirees to preserve superannuation. But if those likely to qualify for the Age Pension later in life spend a little more today, it may deliver higher lifetime income and a more stable retirement.

It’s time for LICs to die

A high-profile dividend cut and a prominent fund manager’s apology have reignited a long-running debate. If investors can access similar exposures more cheaply and efficiently elsewhere, what exactly is keeping LICs alive?

Is it time to bail on Australian stocks?

For generations, Australian investors have backed banks, miners and dividends. But has that loyalty come at a cost? A look at the numbers raises an uncomfortable question about where future returns will come from.

Testamentary trusts survived the trust tax. The drafting battle has just begun.

The fight over testamentary trusts looked settled. Then the draft legislation arrived. Hidden in a technical detail is a question that could force many families to rethink wills they thought were already future-proof.

The new capital gains tax trap for your portfolio

Investors have long accepted one portfolio rule without much question. A major tax shift could change that calculation entirely, forcing difficult trade-offs between risk, discipline and an overlooked cost lurking beneath.

The investing rule that explains the next market crash

What if investment success depends less on picking the right assets and more on understanding the decisions of other investors? A principle borrowed from game theory offers a different perspective on markets.

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