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Edition: 645

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 645 with weekend update

  • 15 January 2026
  • 2

Rio Tinto is proposing a $300 million merger with Glencore soon after BHP tried to nab Anglo American. The commodities boom is heating up but will the mining giants incinerate money like past cycles or is this time different?

Building a lazy ETF portfolio in 2026

What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.

21 reasons we’re nearing the end of a secular bull market

Nearly all the indicators an investor would look for suggest that this secular bull market is approaching its end. My models forecast that the US is set for 0% annual returns over the next decade.

13 million spare bedrooms: Rethinking Australia’s housing shortfall

We don’t have a housing shortage; we have housing misallocation. This explores why so many bedrooms go unused, what’s been tried before, and five things to unlock housing capacity – no new building required.

Market entry – dip your toe or jump in all at once?

Lump sum investing usually wins, but it can hurt if markets fall. Using 50 years of Australian data, we reveal when staging your entry protects you, and when it drags on returns. 

The US$21 trillion question: is AI an opportunity or excess?

It has been years since the US stock market has been so focused on a single driving theme, and AI is unquestionably that theme. This explores what it means for US and global markets in 2026.

US energy strategy holds lessons for Australia

The US has elevated energy to a national security priority, tying cheap, reliable power to economic strength, AI leadership, and sovereignty. This analyses the new framework and its implications for Australia.

Venezuela’s democratic roots are deeper than Trump knows

Most people know Maduro was a dictator and Venezuela has oil. Few grasp the depth of suffering or the country’s democratic history - essential context as the US ousts Maduro and charts Venezuela’s future. 

Most viewed in recent weeks

Why spending more in early retirement can improve lifetime income

Conventional wisdom encourages retirees to preserve superannuation. But if those likely to qualify for the Age Pension later in life spend a little more today, it may deliver higher lifetime income and a more stable retirement.

It’s time for LICs to die

A high-profile dividend cut and a prominent fund manager’s apology have reignited a long-running debate. If investors can access similar exposures more cheaply and efficiently elsewhere, what exactly is keeping LICs alive?

Testamentary trusts survived the trust tax. The drafting battle has just begun.

The fight over testamentary trusts looked settled. Then the draft legislation arrived. Hidden in a technical detail is a question that could force many families to rethink wills they thought were already future-proof.

Is it time to bail on Australian stocks?

For generations, Australian investors have backed banks, miners and dividends. But has that loyalty come at a cost? A look at the numbers raises an uncomfortable question about where future returns will come from.

The new capital gains tax trap for your portfolio

Investors have long accepted one portfolio rule without much question. A major tax shift could change that calculation entirely, forcing difficult trade-offs between risk, discipline and an overlooked cost lurking beneath.

How the typical Australian Family could save $844,350 in taxes

The value of a testamentary trust is not determined by wealth alone. Depending on circumstances, it can reduce the tax burden on inherited income, create efficiencies and help build intergenerational wealth.

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