Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Fixed Income Views: Soft landing? Central banks trying to thread the needle

Executive Summary

Since our last publication, we have upgraded our view on both the US and euro area (EA) economies, and we are no longer projecting a technical recession in the former. Where we break from market consensus is in our view on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) path to monetary policy normalization. The market appears to be confident in the Fed’s ability to orchestrate a “soft landing” that would allow the Fed to cut interest rates throughout next year. We feel the trajectory of disinflation in both the United States and EA will flatten—and central banks are thus likely to keep rates higher for longer.

Spreads in fixed income sectors are pricing in a quite sanguine environment, with levels leaning toward long-term averages, much tighter than previous periods of stress.
We retain the view that both active portfolio management and superior security selection will be the main drivers of returns for investors.

Download the full paper

 


 

Leave a Comment:

     
banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

An important Foxtel announcement...

News Corp's plans to sell Foxtel are surprising in that streaming assets Kayo, Binge and Hubbl look likely to go with it. This and recent events in the US show the bind that legacy TV businesses find themselves in.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 581 with weekend update

A recent industry event made me realise that a 30 year old investing trend could still have serious legs. Could it eventually pose a threat to two of Australia's biggest companies?

  • 10 October 2024

The quirks of retirement planning with an age gap

A big age gap can make it harder to find a solution that works for both partners – financially and otherwise. Having a frank conversation about the future, and having it as early as possible, is essential.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 578 with weekend update

The number of high-net-worth individuals in Australia has increased by almost 9% over the past year, and they now own $3.3 trillion in investable assets. A new report reveals how the wealthy are investing their money.

  • 19 September 2024

The challenges of building a portfolio from scratch

It surprises me how often individual investors and even seasoned financial professionals don’t know the basics of building an investment portfolio. Here is a guide to do just that, as well as the challenges involved.

The everything rally brings danger and opportunity

Most market players today seek quick rewards and validation of opinion. Outsiders willing to combine new technology with old-fashioned patience and focused analysis can prosper.

Latest Updates

Retirement

The quirks of retirement planning with an age gap

A big age gap can make it harder to find a solution that works for both partners – financially and otherwise. Having a frank conversation about the future, and having it as early as possible, is essential.

The everything rally brings danger and opportunity

Most market players today seek quick rewards and validation of opinion. Outsiders willing to combine new technology with old-fashioned patience and focused analysis can prosper.

Investment strategies

Portfolio construction in the real world

Building a portfolio is like building a house. This framework can help you move towards your goals without losing sight of reality or leaving yourself vulnerable to market storms.

Shares

Feel the fear and buy anyway

In this extract from his new book, the co-founder of Intelligent Investor reveals how investors can avoid critical mistakes and profit from opportunities in collapsing share prices.

Investment strategies

The risks of market concentration and not staying invested

MFS chief investment officer and CEO elect Ted Maloney talks market risks, similarities between Trump and Harris, and the most important thing investors can do to avoid destroying value.

Gold

Gold's important role as geopolitical tensions rise

Equity markets have traditionally struggled at times of sustained geopoltical tension. Gold, on the other hand, has thrived and can provide investors with protection against "unknown unknowns".

Strategy

The changing face of finals footy and the numbers behind it

A well-meaning AFL rule change in 2016 seems to have had unintended consequences. The top teams might cry foul but AFL bosses are unlikely to be too miffed about the outcome.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2024 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.