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15 August 2022
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During market dislocation events, investors react irrationally and it should be a great environment for active management. The last few years have been an easy ride on tech stocks but it's now all about quality.
It is hard to think of any area of widespread public concern where the same policies have been pursued for so long, in the face of such incontrovertible evidence that they have failed to achieve their objectives.
Is it more difficult to find stocks to short in a rising market? What impact has central bank dominance had over stock selection? How do you combine income and growth in a portfolio? Where are the opportunities?
The pandemic has shown that the emerging market complex is more mature, with central bank discipline, strong demand for commodities and a positive outlook for currencies. Diversification into EM is worth a look.
Some high-quality companies have emerged even stronger since the onset of COVID and are well placed for outperformance. We call these the ‘COVID Opportunists’ as they are now dominating their specific sectors.
Long duration assets such as government bonds and property have benefitted from falling interest rates, but a turn is coming. It's time to find assets that may benefit from rising rates, such as private debt.
Renewable energy is evolving rapidly, and incumbent and non-renewable sources of energy generation have been priced out of the market. But there are many challenges when investing in such a changing paradigm.
In investing, income and capital gains are akin to scoring goals, but successful teams must also stop the other side from scoring. Most portfolios need a manager preserving capital and reducing drawdowns.
This increased focus on affordable housing is welcome but the challenge is that investors typically require ‘market’ rate financial returns. By definition, social housing tenants cannot pay market rent.
Emerging market equities performed strongly up to the GFC but have gone sideways since. In this cyclical sector, there's an opportunity to catch up boosted by strong inflows, a lower US dollar and tech adoption.
Global equity markets have experienced huge volatility during 2020. Investors are now looking at stretched large cap valuations but there are good opportunities in less well-known, smaller companies.
COVID-19 is delivering winners and losers, and buying a well-positioned company while shorting one with worse prospects can provide returns while managing the downside of an overall market correction.
With central banks injecting as much liquidity as the market needs, the fundamental price signal has been lost. But the evidence is this does not help sustainable and long-term economic growth.
There are heavy clouds on the horizon in the near and medium term, yet risk markets have separated themselves from the economics. Liquidity will not solve the problems of bankrupt companies.
As hopes of a V-shaped recovery diminish, so will the revenues of many highly-geared companies. Client redemptions and downgrades will force selling at distressed prices beyond the Fed's capacity.
Market uncertainty, low interest rates and the threat from COVID-19 to global economies have boosted the performance of high quality fixed income assets. Lesser corporates face another story.
Australian investors have a domestic bias, but around the world, a swag of small to medium cap companies offer better value than the mega-cap names that have driven markets in recent years.
With the power of 5G technology, the IoT phenomenon will grow exponentially, especially from apps, platforms and services. Much of the opportunity in emerging markets is underappreciated.
Bonds markets have continued to defy the notion that low yields imply low returns, and most investors need the solid foundation that bonds give to a portfolio.
Higher volatility, higher funding costs, US rate rises with AUD interest rates decoupling, Quantitative Tightening, maturing bond reinvestment flows all point to a difficult 2018.
Amid thousands of comments, tips include developing interests to keep occupied, planning in advance to have enough money, staying connected with friends and communities ... should you defer retirement or just do it?
Retirement is a good experience if you plan for it and manage your time, but freedom from money worries is key. Many retirees enjoy managing their money but SMSFs are not for everyone. Each retirement is different.
Investing is often portrayed as unapproachably complex. Can it be distilled into nine tips? An economist with 35 years of experience through numerous market cycles and events has given it a shot.
A new standard argues the majority of Australians will never achieve the ASFA 'comfortable' level of retirement savings and it amounts to 'fearmongering' by vested interests. If comfortable is aspirational, so be it.
Billionaire fund manager standoff: Ray Dalio thinks investing is common sense and markets are simple, while Howard Marks says complex and convoluted 'second-level' thinking is needed for superior returns.
If you feel fear when the market loses its head, you become part of the herd. Develop habits to embrace the fear. Identify the cause, decide if you need to take action and own the result without looking back.