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10 March 2026
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Dealmaking appears to be on the mend, but investors could be well served to look through near-term trends toward six major themes that we think may drive private markets for years to come.
What is the X-Factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2025? It's time to select the winner.
On every valuation metric, the US appears significantly more expensive than Australia. However, American companies are also much more profitable than ours, which means the ASX may be more overvalued than most think.
The surge in passive investing doesn’t just mirror the market—it shapes it, often amplifying the rise of the largest firms and creating new risks and opportunities. For investors, understanding these effects is essential.
If you’re like me, you may have put money into term deposits over the past year and it’s time to decide whether to roll them over or look elsewhere. Here are the pros and cons of cash versus other assets right now.
Growth investors are using Buffett to justify buying blue chip stocks at almost any price. It’s a recipe for potential disaster, as investors in market darlings like CBA and Cochlear may be about to find out.
Inflation is yesterday's issue and markets have started to reflect that. ASX prospects look positive with consumption growth, tax cuts, infrastructure investment, and a Chinese recovery to flow through to corporate earnings.
Price is a subjective measure with no mathematical definition, but valuation approximates the truth. With many stock prices down, investors looking to buy should consider three steps suited to current market conditions.
There have been few times in the past 140 years when investors were willing to pay for more than 30 years’ worth of earnings, yet here we are around 40. This starting point does not augur well for future returns.
Stagflation occurs when economic growth slows (stagnation) and prices rise (inflation), and while this scenario has been evident for a while now, is it really the same as the last time, over 40 years ago?
Financial leverage is already built into many real estate funds and companies, and borrowing even more to invest can produce spectacular results - on both the upside and the downside.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.
Most commentary on gold's recent record highs focus on it being the product of fear or speculative momentum. That's ignoring the deeper structural drivers at play.