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21 May 2025
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Will the Year of the Dragon prove a fruitful one for markets? Strong labor markets and a loosening in financial conditions should help in the first half of 2024, though things may get more rocky as the year progresses.
The Chinese economic model needs an overhaul and a currency devaluation is one way for the country to restructure. If a devaluation happens, it will have significant ramifications for Australia and the world.
The structural drivers for China's rise remain intact. Companies there will benefit from rising incomes, increasing demand for premium goods and services, and burgeoning sophistication in technology and manufacturing.
Regulatory tightening has wiped US$1 trillion off China’s stockmarket over the past year, but this is not representative of the whole private sector. It is catching up with global practices of supervision of tech.
China is approaching a 'Lewis turning point' at the same time it faces a demographic time bomb with its rapidly-ageing 1.4 billion population. How it solves these problems will have a massive impact on Australia.
Australia has its tensions with China but with a strong base and a competitive, well-educated workforce, China’s manufacturing champions will advance its technology prowess and gain global market share.
Consumers are now having a bigger impact on China’s economic growth to the benefit of multinationals, but foreign companies can face boycotts when pursuing Chinese consumers.
The debt picture in China is complicated by the many layers of property development, shadow banking and local government, and it poses a risk to China's economic stability.
Recent economic volatility in China could signal an important social shift - one which could actually drive China’s future growth and transform the country’s economic model.
A 'hard landing' scenario for China could see many areas adversely affected, with one problem leading to another. Australia would feel the effects of such a downturn but no-one knows the magnitude.
Labor has announced a $2.3 billion Cheaper Home Batteries Program, aimed at slashing the cost of home batteries. The goal is to turbocharge battery uptake, though practical difficulties may prevent that happening.
The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.
The boss of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, UniSuper’s John Pearce, says Trump has declared an economic war and he’ll be reducing his US stock exposure over time. Should you follow suit?
Every crisis throws up opportunities. Here are ideas to capitalise on this one, including ‘overbalancing’ your portfolio in stocks, buying heavily discounted LICs, and cherry picking bombed out sectors like oil and gas.
While many chase high yields, true investment power lies in companies that steadily grow dividends. This strategy, rooted in patience and discipline, quietly compounds wealth and anchors investors through market turbulence.
Behind market volatility and tariff threats lies a deeper strategy. Trump’s real goal isn’t trade reform but managing America's massive debts, preserving bond market confidence, and preparing for potential QE.