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19 September 2025
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Will the Year of the Dragon prove a fruitful one for markets? Strong labor markets and a loosening in financial conditions should help in the first half of 2024, though things may get more rocky as the year progresses.
The Chinese economic model needs an overhaul and a currency devaluation is one way for the country to restructure. If a devaluation happens, it will have significant ramifications for Australia and the world.
The structural drivers for China's rise remain intact. Companies there will benefit from rising incomes, increasing demand for premium goods and services, and burgeoning sophistication in technology and manufacturing.
Regulatory tightening has wiped US$1 trillion off China’s stockmarket over the past year, but this is not representative of the whole private sector. It is catching up with global practices of supervision of tech.
China is approaching a 'Lewis turning point' at the same time it faces a demographic time bomb with its rapidly-ageing 1.4 billion population. How it solves these problems will have a massive impact on Australia.
Australia has its tensions with China but with a strong base and a competitive, well-educated workforce, China’s manufacturing champions will advance its technology prowess and gain global market share.
Consumers are now having a bigger impact on China’s economic growth to the benefit of multinationals, but foreign companies can face boycotts when pursuing Chinese consumers.
The debt picture in China is complicated by the many layers of property development, shadow banking and local government, and it poses a risk to China's economic stability.
Recent economic volatility in China could signal an important social shift - one which could actually drive China’s future growth and transform the country’s economic model.
A 'hard landing' scenario for China could see many areas adversely affected, with one problem leading to another. Australia would feel the effects of such a downturn but no-one knows the magnitude.
Australia could unlock smarter investment and greater equity by reforming housing tax concessions. Rethinking exemptions on the family home could benefit most Australians, especially renters and owners of modest homes.
The creator of the 4% rule for retirement withdrawals, Bill Bengen, has written a new book outlining fresh strategies to outlive your money, including holding fewer stocks in early retirement before increasing allocations.
This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.
An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.
Are franking credits factored into share prices? The data suggests they're probably not, and there are certain types of stocks that offer higher franking credits as well as the prospect for higher returns.
LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.