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3 February 2026
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Strategist Russell Napier says central banks have lifted interest rates too far and a deflationary shock is coming. He believes Governments will react radically and investors should avoid bonds and US stocks, and own more gold.
Real returns on equities and multi-asset portfolios are typically poor when inflation is high, especially in times of stagflation. Factor returns, on the other hand, are relatively insensitive to inflation cycles.
The signs are that bond yields could stay low for a long time. This has important implications for future returns, but are we heading for the Big Bang, the Big Crunch or the Steady State?
Are analysts who repeatedly issue warnings that do not come true crying wolf about an imaginary risk of inflation? The problem is governments may become addicted to imprudent deficit spending.
Inflation and deflation forces exist and the dominant outcome is uncertain at the moment, but equity investors should consider inflation risk within their asset allocation framework.
Not long ago, investors were worried about deflation, but there are signs the opposite is now a greater risk. There are types of investment worth considering for a portfolio in case inflation takes hold again.
Opinion piece on deflation and why trying to defeat it has serious drawbacks. Deflation benefits end consumers and is particularly beneficial to those on fixed incomes, including retirees and poorer people.
Investing into bonds when you know you will lose money sounds crazy, but aside from interest rates, there’s deflation, economic stability, safety and currency issues to consider.
What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.
At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.
Treasury has released draft legislation for a new version of the controversial $3 million super tax. It's a significant improvement on the original proposal but there are some stings in the tail.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The predictions include dividends will outstrip growth as a source of Australian equity returns, US market performance will be underwhelming, while US government bonds will beat gold.
We don’t have a housing shortage; we have housing misallocation. This explores why so many bedrooms go unused, what’s been tried before, and five things to unlock housing capacity – no new building required.