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Deflation

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Investing across deflation, inflation and stagflation

Real returns on equities and multi-asset portfolios are typically poor when inflation is high, especially in times of stagflation. Factor returns, on the other hand, are relatively insensitive to inflation cycles.

Are bond yields lower forever or is the Big Bang coming?

The signs are that bond yields could stay low for a long time. This has important implications for future returns, but are we heading for the Big Bang, the Big Crunch or the Steady State?

Are we again crying wolf on inflation risk in pandemic response?

Are analysts who repeatedly issue warnings that do not come true crying wolf about an imaginary risk of inflation? The problem is governments may become addicted to imprudent deficit spending. 

The unreliability of inflation forecasting

Inflation and deflation forces exist and the dominant outcome is uncertain at the moment, but equity investors should consider inflation risk within their asset allocation framework.

From deflation fears to inflation worries

Not long ago, investors were worried about deflation, but there are signs the opposite is now a greater risk. There are types of investment worth considering for a portfolio in case inflation takes hold again.

Deflation is good

Opinion piece on deflation and why trying to defeat it has serious drawbacks. Deflation benefits end consumers and is particularly beneficial to those on fixed incomes, including retirees and poorer people.

Why investors buy bonds at negative yields

Investing into bonds when you know you will lose money sounds crazy, but aside from interest rates, there’s deflation, economic stability, safety and currency issues to consider.

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