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Deflation

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Why a deflationary shock is near

Strategist Russell Napier says central banks have lifted interest rates too far and a deflationary shock is coming. He believes Governments will react radically and investors should avoid bonds and US stocks, and own more gold.

Investing across deflation, inflation and stagflation

Real returns on equities and multi-asset portfolios are typically poor when inflation is high, especially in times of stagflation. Factor returns, on the other hand, are relatively insensitive to inflation cycles.

Are bond yields lower forever or is the Big Bang coming?

The signs are that bond yields could stay low for a long time. This has important implications for future returns, but are we heading for the Big Bang, the Big Crunch or the Steady State?

Are we again crying wolf on inflation risk in pandemic response?

Are analysts who repeatedly issue warnings that do not come true crying wolf about an imaginary risk of inflation? The problem is governments may become addicted to imprudent deficit spending. 

The unreliability of inflation forecasting

Inflation and deflation forces exist and the dominant outcome is uncertain at the moment, but equity investors should consider inflation risk within their asset allocation framework.

From deflation fears to inflation worries

Not long ago, investors were worried about deflation, but there are signs the opposite is now a greater risk. There are types of investment worth considering for a portfolio in case inflation takes hold again.

Deflation is good

Opinion piece on deflation and why trying to defeat it has serious drawbacks. Deflation benefits end consumers and is particularly beneficial to those on fixed incomes, including retirees and poorer people.

Why investors buy bonds at negative yields

Investing into bonds when you know you will lose money sounds crazy, but aside from interest rates, there’s deflation, economic stability, safety and currency issues to consider.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Maybe it’s time to consider taxing the family home

Australia could unlock smarter investment and greater equity by reforming housing tax concessions. Rethinking exemptions on the family home could benefit most Australians, especially renters and owners of modest homes.

Supercharging the ‘4% rule’ to ensure a richer retirement

The creator of the 4% rule for retirement withdrawals, Bill Bengen, has written a new book outlining fresh strategies to outlive your money, including holding fewer stocks in early retirement before increasing allocations.

Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.

Are franking credits worth pursuing?

Are franking credits factored into share prices? The data suggests they're probably not, and there are certain types of stocks that offer higher franking credits as well as the prospect for higher returns.

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

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