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Efficient Market Hypothesis

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The best opportunities in fixed income right now

After more than a decade of pitiful yields, bonds are back offering better prospects for income investors. What are the best ways to take advantage of the market inefficiencies in Australian fixed income?

Are there opportunities for an active manager in an efficient market?

Liquid, large share markets are generally efficient, but events at a company, sector or economy-wide level can create opportunities when the market over reacts. It pays to be patient.

Stock market winners versus losers

In 1993, researchers in the US studied the phenomenon of winning stocks continuing to outperform losing stocks. Using both long and short positions one could theoretically outperform the market on a regular basis.

Introduction to Burton Malkiel

Burton Malkiel is author of the classic A Random Walk Down Wall Street, now in its 10th edition since 1973, and eight other books on investing. Here's a summary of his views on markets and valuing stocks.

The Burton Malkiel Interview

"I would not buy a bond index fund today, because I think they’re going to get killed. I don’t like lifecycle funds, they’re putting 80% into the securities that are going to give people an enormous amount of trouble."

Most viewed in recent weeks

Ray Dalio on 2025’s real story, Trump, and what’s next

The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.

Making sense of record high markets as the world catches fire

The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.

3 ways to fix Australia’s affordability crisis

Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.

Is there a better way to reform the CGT discount?

The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.

How cutting the CGT discount could help rebalance housing market

A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 648 with weekend update

This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.

  • 5 February 2026

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