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Efficient Market Hypothesis

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The best opportunities in fixed income right now

After more than a decade of pitiful yields, bonds are back offering better prospects for income investors. What are the best ways to take advantage of the market inefficiencies in Australian fixed income?

Are there opportunities for an active manager in an efficient market?

Liquid, large share markets are generally efficient, but events at a company, sector or economy-wide level can create opportunities when the market over reacts. It pays to be patient.

Stock market winners versus losers

In 1993, researchers in the US studied the phenomenon of winning stocks continuing to outperform losing stocks. Using both long and short positions one could theoretically outperform the market on a regular basis.

Introduction to Burton Malkiel

Burton Malkiel is author of the classic A Random Walk Down Wall Street, now in its 10th edition since 1973, and eight other books on investing. Here's a summary of his views on markets and valuing stocks.

The Burton Malkiel Interview

"I would not buy a bond index fund today, because I think they’re going to get killed. I don’t like lifecycle funds, they’re putting 80% into the securities that are going to give people an enormous amount of trouble."

Most viewed in recent weeks

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 627 with weekend update

This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.

  • 4 September 2025

5 charts every retiree must see…

Retirement can be daunting for Australians facing financial uncertainty. Understand your goals, longevity challenges, inflation impacts, market risks, and components of retirement income with these crucial charts.

Why super returns may be heading lower

Five mega trends point to risks of a more inflation prone and lower growth environment. This, along with rich market valuations, should constrain medium term superannuation returns to around 5% per annum.

Super crosses the retirement Rubicon

Australia's superannuation system faces a 'Rubicon' moment, a turning point where the focus is shifting from accumulation phase to retirement readiness, but unfortunately, many funds are not rising to the challenge.

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