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7 October 2025
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It was a joy ride while it lasted but the free money era could not last. The consequences of the misallocation of capital into poor companies is now playing out and shareholders face billions of dollars in losses.
The connectivity enabled by the ‘super platforms’ of Facebook, Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Tencent and Alibaba is creating the best investment opportunities as business catches on.
Online currently makes up around 3% of the total Australian grocery spend, but there is considerable space to grow. The stakes are high to get this next stage of online technology right.
Let's face it. Prices for many listed and unlisted companies have reached insane levels. Many of Australia's most reputable and successful fund managers are bewildered by the current market, and something's got to give.
Investors underestimate the power of network effects, which increase the lifetime value of users and deliver high incremental margins with fixed operating costs. It's worth trawling the market for strong network effects.
It’s only taken 20 years but the hallmarks of the excesses of the 2000 Tech Wreck are in play again. At the same time, some of the lending mistakes of the GFC are being repeated.
This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.
An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.
LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.
Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?
Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?
This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.