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Real Interest Rates

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What to do about our distorted relationship with money

We’re in a rare moment in history where the term premium has been negative for a number of years.  History suggests that won't last, and here are the best ways to position your portfolio to benefit from the change.

Time to announce the X-factor for 2022

What is the X-factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2022? It's time to announce the winner.

Is there any point in holding cash?

Cash is a drag on portfolios when the stockmarket is strong but a welcome bulwark when the market sells off. Moving to cash is justified for the plausible scenario where the value of all other assets falls.

It’s time to reveal the 2021 X-Factor in investment markets

For 40 years, recording the market's X-Factor has become an obsession. In weighing up four big candidates for the most likely X-Factor emerging from 2021 and likely to hit in 2022, there is a clear winner.

Rising bond yields complicate the COVID recovery

Investment returns have defied initial expectations set in the early stages of the Covid pandemic, but where to from here? Which asset classes offer the best opportunities?

Rising real yields likely to undermine equity values

Negative real yields have unmoored asset prices from fundamentals, but inflation pressures are likely to start pushing real yields higher. Higher real yields should feed into lower risk asset valuations.

Should investors brace for uncomfortably high inflation?

The global recession came quickly and deeply but it has given way to a strong rebound. What are the lessons for investors, how should a portfolio change and what role will inflation play?

Nominal and real interest rates matter in different ways

Around the world, real interest rates are now unusually low or even negative. The hunt for real yield that’s become a preoccupation of investors is likely to remain a dominant feature of investment markets for several years at least.

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Why it’s time to ditch the retirement journey

Retirement isn’t a clean financial arc. Income shocks, health costs and family pressures hit at random, exposing the limits of age-based planning and the myth of a predictable “retirement journey".

Australia's retirement system works brilliantly for some - but not all

The superannuation system has succeeded brilliantly at what it was designed to do: accumulate wealth during working lives. The next challenge is meeting members’ diverse needs in retirement. 

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, 2025 edition

Two years ago, I wrote an article suggesting that the odds favoured ASX shares easily outperforming residential property over the next decade. Here’s an update on where things stand today.

The 3 biggest residential property myths

I am a professional real estate investor who hears a lot of opinions rather than facts from so-called experts on the topic of property. Here are the largest myths when it comes to Australia’s biggest asset class.

AFIC on the speculative ASX boom, opportunities, and LIC discounts

In an interview with Firstlinks, CEO Mark Freeman discusses how speculative ASX stocks have crushed blue chips this year, companies he likes now, and why he’s confident AFIC’s NTA discount will close.

Where to hide in the ‘everything bubble’

It might not be quite an ‘everything bubble’ but there’s froth in many assets, not just US stocks, right now. It might be time to stress test your portfolio and consider assets that could offer you shelter if trouble is coming.

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