Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 348

Virus creates liquidity threat for lower quality bonds

Markets are dominated by coronavirus fears, triggering significant positive performance in high quality fixed income assets. As the threat of a global pandemic increases, economies are likely to collectively suffer with both lower demand and significant supply disruptions.

There isn’t a magical human policy which can easily make this go away. Interest rate cuts and liquidity will help, but they cannot solve the clear and present dangers we are currently facing. That’s worth thinking about as we look forward over the coming months, because we don’t think liquidity helps with supply issues this time.

Jamieson Coote Bonds (JCB) believes that the global environment was already slowing into the onset of this outbreak, but it is almost certain that economies will suffer intense slowdowns as a result. Virus-effected economic data for February is only now coming through.

Looking at China data to date, as the earliest country to experience COVID-19, it has been far worse than expected. This could trigger a cashflow crisis in corporates, and we hold grave fears for markets’ and central bankers’ ability to help in a ‘supply’ side shock.

Weak manufacturing data from China

The depth of the shock is sobering indeed. The official Chinese Government manufacturing data and the private sector manufacturing series for February posted outcomes far worse than the depths of the GFC. This type of economic outcome is likely in all virus-affected geographies over rolling time frames as the virus spreads.

The outlook for bonds in the short term

For bonds there are two clear pathways forward as we see it.

  1. The virus has already created significant supply and demand destruction, putting large pressure on corporate cashflows, killing incoming economic data. Hoping for the best, if the virus can be contained in the days and weeks ahead, markets will still require huge policy accommodation to deal with this shock. We are seeing the start now as the RBA cut rates 0.25%, the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) cut rates by a 0.50% emergency, the first since GFC, the Bank of Canada cut by 0.50%, and Hong Kong also followed suit. Rate cuts and liquidity programs will see bonds, as well as some other assets, continue to perform well.

  2. Our worst fears are realised, the virus drags on for a prolonged period and triggers a global credit event. In this instance return ‘of’ capital will be paramount, rather than return ‘on’ capital and government bonds would be one of the few standalone asset classes to provide that certainty plus providing significant liquidity. In this instance we would expect strong returns both on an outright and relative basis versus other asset classes.

Liquidity is the key in this uncertain terrain

We cannot stress enough the possibility that markets may totally seize. The speed and velocity of the current moves in an algorithmic dominated world are quite astounding versus what we previously experienced in the GFC. A total panic moment could potentially be ahead if the plumbing of the financial system cannot be lubricated – the credit markets must find a way to re-open and provide corporates the ability to roll existing debt obligations forward.

There is a very serious liquidity crunch unravelling, as parts of the funding markets and most of the corporate credit market are frozen. To date, central bank rate cuts have clearly not resolved these issues. It is highly likely the Fed and other central banks will need to inject an avalanche of additional stimulus and liquidity. In other words, more rate cuts, liquidity provision, extended swap lines, uncapped repurchase agreements and further quantitative easing.

 

Charlie Jamieson is Executive Director and CIO of Jamieson Coote Bonds (JCB). This article contains general information only and does not consider the circumstances of any investor.

JCB is an investment manager partner of Channel Capital, a sponsor of Firstlinks. For more articles and papers from Channel Capital and partners, click here.

 

RELATED ARTICLES

5 insights that put market volatility in perspective

Invest in equities until you reach your sleeping point

How are high net worths investing and thinking now?

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Australian house prices close in on world record

Sydney is set to become the world’s most expensive city for housing over the next 12 months, a new report shows. Our other major cities aren’t far behind unless there are major changes to improve housing affordability.

The case for the $3 million super tax

The Government's proposed tax has copped a lot of flack though I think it's a reasonable approach to improve the long-term sustainability of superannuation and the retirement income system. Here’s why.

7 examples of how the new super tax will be calculated

You've no doubt heard about Division 296. These case studies show what people at various levels above the $3 million threshold might need to pay the ATO, with examples ranging from under $500 to more than $35,000.

The revolt against Baby Boomer wealth

The $3m super tax could be put down to the Government needing money and the wealthy being easy targets. It’s deeper than that though and this looks at the factors behind the policy and why more taxes on the wealthy are coming.

Meg on SMSFs: Withdrawing assets ahead of the $3m super tax

The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.

The super tax and the defined benefits scandal

Australia's superannuation inequities date back to poor decisions made by Parliament two decades ago. If super for the wealthy needs resetting, so too does the defined benefits schemes for our public servants.

Latest Updates

Planning

Will young Australians be better off than their parents?

For much of Australia’s history, each new generation has been better off than the last: better jobs and incomes as well as improved living standards. A new report assesses whether this time may be different.

Superannuation

The rubbery numbers behind super tax concessions

In selling the super tax, Labor has repeated Treasury claims of there being $50 billion in super tax concessions annually, mostly flowing to high-income earners. This figure is vastly overstated.

Investment strategies

A steady road to getting rich

The latest lists of Australia’s wealthiest individuals show that while overall wealth has continued to rise, gains by individuals haven't been uniform. Many might have been better off adopting a simpler investment strategy.

Economy

Would a corporate tax cut boost productivity in Australia?

As inflation eases, the Albanese government is switching its focus to lifting Australia’s sluggish productivity. Can corporate tax cuts reboot growth - or are we chasing a theory that doesn’t quite work here?

Are V-shaped market recoveries becoming more frequent?

April’s sharp rebound may feel familiar, but are V-shaped recoveries really more common in the post-COVID world? A look at market history suggests otherwise and hints that a common bias might be skewing perceptions.

Investment strategies

Asset allocation in a world of riskier developed markets

Old distinctions between developed and emerging market bonds no longer hold true. At a time where true diversification matters more than ever, this has big ramifications for the way that portfolios should be constructed.

Investment strategies

Top 5 investment reads

As the July school holiday break nears, here are some investment classics to put onto your reading list. The books offer lessons in investment strategy, financial disasters, and mergers and acquisitions.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.