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Monday, 25 May 2020
Recently trending Buffett's meeting takeaway: extreme cautionWelcome to Firstlinks Edition 356The vibe of future returns: tell ‘em they’re dreamin’Baseline outlook for economic recovery is too optimistic Retiree spending patterns differ from most expectations
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There are heavy clouds on the horizon in the near and medium term, yet risk markets have separated themselves from the economics. Liquidity will not solve the problems of bankrupt companies.
Investors hold non-government bonds for both their income and defensive characteristics, but there must be sufficient diversification and liquidity in quality names to manage the risk.
Market uncertainty, low interest rates and the threat from COVID-19 to global economies have boosted the performance of high quality fixed income assets. Lesser corporates face another story.
For investors able to react quickly when stressed selling hits hybrids, excellent margins are available on quality names. The GFC taught experienced investors lessons that are now repeating.
Some investors are questioning the role of bonds with such low rates, but they remain an important part of a diversified portfolio for several reasons. Don't give up on them yet.
The market is asking how much are you willing to pay to feel safe, and the answer is: a lot. Perhaps a better question to ask is: how much are you risking in your quest to feel comfortable?
Global indexes are undergoing a fundamental shift, forcing investors to revise their allocations. There has never been a change of this size, coinciding with China's rise as an economic power.
Bonds markets have continued to defy the notion that low yields imply low returns, and most investors need the solid foundation that bonds give to a portfolio.
Amid the many strategies proposed to overcome Labor's franking policy if adopted, often overlooked is building a portfolio of the right types of bonds and hybrids as an alternative source of income.
The US inverted yield curve has many worried about whether it indicates a coming recession, but the Fed has moved to a more dovish stance. A diversity of equity and bond exposures is the best way to cope.
Nobody revalues their own home each day in the way they revalue listed equities, but does that mean the value is constant? The daily unit price is calculated in some super funds using unlisted asset valuations.
We like a good debate, and when two opposing views argued about the role of government bonds in a diversified portfolio, a veteran of 30 years in fixed interest stepped in as referee.
Warren Buffett's annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway showed he has not been 'investing while others are fearful' during the crisis. lt's a reminder to take caution and preserve cash.
Few investors are as influential as Warren Buffett, although for the moment, the market is ignoring his caution. The annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway revealed Buffett did not use the heavy market falls in February to buy shares. Rather than 'buy when others are fearful', he was a net seller of US$6 billion for the quarter, disposing of all airline shares. Berkshire is sitting on US$137 billion in cash, suggesting he expects better buying opportunities to come.
It's the vibe, but not much else. Super balance calculations default to earnings rates of 7.5%, but that's in the past. Global experts suggest financial plans are now dreaming at this level.
We cannot throw our hands up in the air and say 'this time around, it's simply too hard'. Having no macro view is unhelpful, but many of the baseline scenarios are overly optimistic, says the former CEO of Westpac and now Chairman of Chi-X Australia.
A study of actual spending habits shows retirees have a faster-than-expected drop-off in spending in later years, casting doubts on financial plans that assume increasing expenditure over time.
There is a remarkable concentration similarity between the Australian and US stock markets that has delivered poor results for Australians and great results for Americans (and global investors). As the share prices of five Australian banks have tanked, the prices of five US technology companies have surged. Each group now represents 20% of their respective indexes, but the journey has been a disaster for many Australians.