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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 683

  •   8 October 2026
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I once had a rather amusing interaction with an older gentleman at an investment conference.

We'd been discussing artificial intelligence and the speed at which it's embedded itself into every corner of the market. After nodding along for a few minutes, he laughed and declared, "Well, I'm glad I'll be dead soon – I don't have to deal with any of this AI stuff!"

I’ll be the first to admit that these conferences do strange things to people. Lock a few hundred attendees in a ballroom for eight hours of presentations and a comment like that no longer sounds unreasonable.

At the time, I filed it away as a good line. Lately I've been thinking about it differently. In the age of AI, which tasks are still worth doing ourselves? 

A different kind of investment

Like most, I began 2026 with a collection of resolutions. Read more, spend less time staring at a screen, learn a new language (Guten tag) and so on. All of the aspirations that humanity collectively remembers in January.

Another resolution was to prioritise my health and wellbeing. I acknowledge it sounds like those virtuous, hippie endeavours that only wellness gurus with unlimited time and suspiciously flexible schedules can pursue. But my reasoning is considerably less enlightened.

As I continue further into what many insist on calling my 'late twenties', I've realised that neglecting my health is becoming less of a lifestyle quirk and more of a liability.

Our understanding of physical health has become increasingly sophisticated. And we've largely accepted that ageing well requires ongoing maintenance in this regard. That led me to another question. If my physical fitness deserves a level of attention, shouldn't my cognitive fitness deserve it too?

What happens when we outsource thinking?

Which brings me back to the conversation at the investment conference. AI may prove to be one of the most powerful thinking tools in human history. Refusing to use it entirely is about as practical as refusing to use the internet 20 years ago. 

Every new tool that makes life easier also removes some of the mental load that previously accompanied the task. That isn't necessarily a problem, given humanity has spent thousands of years inventing ways to avoid unnecessary effort. I don’t wash clothes by hand to preserve my laundry skills.  

But what happens when intellectual labour becomes outsourced?

History offers a useful analogy. A study from 2006 on London taxi drivers found that those who spent years learning the complex street network had developed measurable structural changes in the hippocampus. This is a region of the brain involved in memory and decision-making. 

Later, the widespread adoption of GPS provided a contrast. As navigation was increasingly outsourced to technology, researchers observed declines in spatial memory among regular users. In other words, use it or lose it.

The risk for investors

Navigation and investment decisions are obviously very different tasks. Yet both illustrate the same principle. When technology consistently assumes responsibility for a cognitive function, we tend to exercise that function less ourselves.

More recent findings suggest an association between heavy AI reliance and weaker critical thinking, analytical reasoning and decision-making. This is largely because people begin outsourcing mental effort and accepting machine-generated answers with less scrutiny due to its perceived authority. 

This perceived authority becomes concerning when we consider that over 3 million Australians already use AI to help manage aspects of their finances. 


Source: Understanding Modern Australia. McCrindle. 2026.

Successful investing has always depended on questioning assumptions and exercising judgement. Unlike many disciplines, investing offers few objectively correct answers in the moment.

Investors are required to constantly operate under uncertainty, making judgement the scarce resource. This becomes problematic if AI becomes a substitute for thinking rather than a tool to enhance it.

I think the paradox is that the easier information becomes to access, the more valuable independent thinking becomes. The challenge is not whether to use AI, but how to ensure it supplements our abilities rather than replacing them entirely.

What can we do about it?

Many people assume that cognitive decline is an inevitable and largely uncontrollable feature of ageing. But researchers view the brain as remarkably adaptable in response to how it’s used.

The Harvard University Medical School coined the term ‘cognitive fitness’. That refers to the ability to learn, reason, remember and remain mentally engaged as we age. Importantly, the goal isn't to preserve the brain of a 30-year-old forever. It is to maintain the healthiest possible brain for whatever age you happen to be.

They propose a few tips to maintain your cognitive fitness. These were not developed with generative AI in mind, but they give us an interesting framework for maintaining the mental habits that AI increasingly encourages us to outsource.

  1. Understand how experience makes the brain grow. Intellectual development doesn't stop in adulthood. Learning new skills, exposing yourself to unfamiliar situations and even observing others can physically strengthen and reshape neural pathways the same way exercise strengthens muscles. Whilst it's easy to fall into familiar routines, deliberately seeking new experiences continues to build mental capacity throughout life.

  2. Work hard at play. The authors argue that adults often stop playing as they become older and more career-focused. But activities that involve experimentation, imagination, creativity and even a degree of risk continue to engage the brain. Intellectual growth always requires a balance between challenge and enjoyment.

  3. Search for patterns. Cognitive fitness doesn't just involve learning new things. It's about building a sufficiently broad base of experiences so that you can recognise patterns others may miss. Intellectual curiosity helps the brain make better connections between seemingly unrelated pieces of information.

The cumulative effect of continuing to learn, adapt and engage with the world matters enormously. The age of AI has made cognitive fitness even more important. We don't need to compete with the machines, but rather maintain the skills required to use them wisely.

If we're prepared to spend decades building wealth so that we can enjoy later life, it seems sensible to devote at least some attention to maintaining the asset that will ultimately determine how much of that life we get to enjoy.

Simonelle Mody

Also in this week's edition...

Bond markets are adjusting to a new reality, but not in the ways most expect. Eric Souders believes higher yields are creating opportunities in global bonds. 

Recession warning signs are flashing everywhere. Shani Jayamanne explains why investors face a different risk that can be just as dangerous for portfolios. 

Meg Heffron is back to discuss how a key Division 296 calculation can sometimes attribute earnings in ways that many SMSF trustees won't expect. 

Negative gearing changes formally begin in 2027, but the first consequences may already be here. Jade Xie examines which investors are most vulnerable. 

The oil market is running out of easy answers. Damien Klassen argues why a more fragile reality is being masked. 

Australians are investing more than ever, yet Alex Zaika shows a surprising divide is emerging between those building wealth effectively and those making costly mistakes.

Jim Bonham models how the 30% minimum CGT and a new definition of taxable capital gains has created a complicated structure that is not progressive, especially for seniors. 

Curated by Simonelle Mody and Leisa Bell

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Plus updates and announcements on the Sponsor Noticeboard on our website

 

  •   8 October 2026
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