Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Register

10 June 2025

Home / White Papers 2023

Another banking crisis – how are REITs positioned?

Executive summary

The recent failure of several regional US banks and Credit Suisse has triggered concerns about the impacts for commercial real estate (CRE) markets as, to varying degrees, these financial institutions are an important source of finance.

  • Banks account for around half of total CRE mortgage debt outstanding in the US.
  • The top 25 banks account for approximately 15% of total CRE mortgage debt outstanding, and those loans represent only 5% of the assets of these banks.
  • Smaller banks (of which there are over 4,600 in the US) account for around 38% of total CRE mortgage debt outstanding and represent a more meaningful 25% of the assets of these banks.
  • Excluding lending to owner occupied properties and farmland, loans from small banks account for around 8% of the total estimated value of income-producing CRE in the US.

After a period of easy money and historically low real estate loan defaults, we do expect heightened credit losses as the market returns to more moderate monetary and fiscal policy settings impacting tenants, landlords and financiers. This should be viewed as a return to ‘normal’.

Crucially at this point, we see limited signs of excess specific to the commercial real estate sector which would cause systemic failure. Furthermore, in general, the listed REIT sector appears to be at least relatively well positioned.

However, there are reasons for vigilance. Clearly, for a variety of reasons, the US office market is an outlier as it faces something of a crisis which could trigger broader ramifications. Moreover, there is limited visibility on the private lending market where higher leverage could cause distress and capital flight.

This report seeks to provide context around:

  1. the magnitude of these issues for U.S. commercial real estate generally
  2. the state of the REIT market with a particular focus on the situation in the U.S.; and
  3. a focus on US office, the sector most at risk

Overall, whilst it will be far from easy, we find that there are important differences between the current malaise compared to the credit crunch that led the Global Financial Crisis. Furthermore, listed REITs are well placed to capitalise on any distress that may arise in the broader real estate investment market.

Download the full paper


 

Leave a Comment:
Firstlinks is sponsored by:
banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Australian house prices close in on world record

Sydney is set to become the world’s most expensive city for housing over the next 12 months, a new report shows. Our other major cities aren’t far behind unless there are major changes to improve housing affordability.

The case for the $3 million super tax

The Government's proposed tax has copped a lot of flack though I think it's a reasonable approach to improve the long-term sustainability of superannuation and the retirement income system. Here’s why.

Tariffs are a smokescreen to Trump's real endgame

Behind market volatility and tariff threats lies a deeper strategy. Trump’s real goal isn’t trade reform but managing America's massive debts, preserving bond market confidence, and preparing for potential QE.

The super tax and the defined benefits scandal

Australia's superannuation inequities date back to poor decisions made by Parliament two decades ago. If super for the wealthy needs resetting, so too does the defined benefits schemes for our public servants.

Meg on SMSFs: Withdrawing assets ahead of the $3m super tax

The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.

Getting rich vs staying rich

Strategies to get rich versus stay rich are markedly different. Here is a look at the five main ways to get rich, including through work, business, investing and luck, as well as those that preserve wealth.

Latest Updates

SMSF strategies

Meg on SMSFs: Withdrawing assets ahead of the $3m super tax

The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.

Superannuation

The huge cost of super tax concessions

The current net annual cost of superannuation tax subsidies is around $40 billion, growing to more than $110 billion by 2060. These subsidies have always been bad policy, representing a waste of taxpayers' money.

Planning

How to avoid inheritance fights

Inspired by the papal conclave, this explores how families can avoid post-death drama through honest conversations, better planning, and trial runs - so there are no surprises when it really matters.

Superannuation

Super contribution splitting

Super contribution splitting allows couples to divide before-tax contributions to super between spouses, maximizing savings. It’s not for everyone, but in the right circumstances, it can be a smart strategy worth exploring.

Economy

Trump vs Powell: Who will blink first?

The US economy faces an unprecedented clash in leadership styles, but the President and Fed Chair could both take a lesson from the other. Not least because the fiscal and monetary authorities need to work together.

Gold

Credit cuts, rising risks, and the case for gold

Shares trade at steep valuations despite higher risks of a recession. Amid doubts that a 60/40 portfolio can still provide enough protection through times of market stress, gold's record shines bright.

Investment strategies

Buffett acolyte warns passive investors of mediocre future returns

While Chris Bloomstan doesn't have the track record of his hero, it's impressive nonetheless. And he's recently warned that today has uncanny resemblances to the 1990s tech bubble and US returns are likely to be disappointing.

Sponsors

Alliances

Site Map

About Firstlinks

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.