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Home / White Papers 2018

Five charts to watch on the global economy

18 October 2018

Key Points

> Whether a recession is imminent or not in the US, and more broadly globally, is critically important in terms of whether a major bear market in shares is on the way.

> Five key global charts to watch in getting a handle on whether a major downturn is on the way are: global business conditions PMIs; global inflation; the US yield curve; the US dollar; and global trade growth.

> While risks have increased – particularly in the US where the economic cycle is more advanced and around the $US and emerging countries and global trade – our assessment remains that a major US/global downturn still remains a way off.

> Which supports our assessment that notwithstanding periodic corrections – including through the seasonally weak period for share markets that we are now in – the broad trend in share markets is likely to remain up.

18 October 2018

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