Key Points
> Whether a recession is imminent or not in the US, and more broadly globally, is critically important in terms of whether a major bear market in shares is on the way.
> Five key global charts to watch in getting a handle on whether a major downturn is on the way are: global business conditions PMIs; global inflation; the US yield curve; the US dollar; and global trade growth.
> While risks have increased – particularly in the US where the economic cycle is more advanced and around the $US and emerging countries and global trade – our assessment remains that a major US/global downturn still remains a way off.
> Which supports our assessment that notwithstanding periodic corrections – including through the seasonally weak period for share markets that we are now in – the broad trend in share markets is likely to remain up.