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Less than 1% of wealthy families will struggle to pay super tax: study

Labor first announced the $3 million super tax way back in February 2023 yet debate about its merits has only started to heat up since the election.

The government wants to increase the rate of tax on earnings from 15% to 30% on the portion of superannuation balances of more than $3 million. Critics have homed in on two areas of the plan. First, the lack of indexation. Second, that the extra tax will also apply to unrealised capital gains.

The latter has proven controversial given it’s largely unprecedented globally, it’s likely to be messy and complex, and it will undoubtedly lead to unintended consequences when it comes to investment decisions. There have even been suggestions that those holding illiquid assets like farms with limited income or other assets may be unable to cover the additional tax impost on unrealised capital gains.

Ben Phillips and Richard Webster from the ANU’s Centre for Social Policy Research wanted to find out more about the income and wealth of those holding more than $3 million in super and whether they could absorb Labor’s new tax.

Here are the study’s key findings:

1. Around 87,000 individuals have super accounts with +$3 million.

That compares to Treasury’s figure of 80,000. The authors concede that at least on this number, Treasury is probably more accurate given it has access to tax data whereas they’ve relied on ABS survey-based estimates.

At a broader household level, only 1.4% of households have super balances above $3 million. Around 90% of households have super balances of less than $1 million and almost 20% have no super at all. And the average household super balance is $387,000 while the median balance is just $143,000.

Household superannuation balances, 2025

2. The average wealth of a household with at least one superannuation balance exceeding $3 million is more than $19 million.

Households with large super balances (with at least one member having +$3 million in super) have wealth averaging $19.3 million compared to $1.68 million for all households, or about 11.5x more.

The wealth isn’t just tied up in super. Of that $19.3 million, an average of $7 million is in super, $3.34 million is in owner occupied housing, and the rest is in other assets.

Total wealth and asset allocation by household type

Total wealth and asset allocation by household type (in millions)

Note: ‘Large super’ = households where one person has a super balance >$3 million.

3. Most of those with +$3 million super balances are over 65 and own their house outright.

The study breaks down the demographic profiles of those with and without large super balances. For the 87,000 people with super balances of more than $3 million, it reveals:

  1. Three in four live in capital cities
  2. Two-thirds are over the age of 65
  3. More than half don’t work
  4. Of those who do work, most are in professional occupations
  5. Nearly eight in 10 own a house outright
  6. The average and median wealth levels are 12-13x that of the general population

Large superannuation and all household demographics

Large superannuation and all household demographics

Note: ‘Large super’ = households where one person has a super balance >$3 million.

4. Less than 1% of those with super balances will struggle to pay the tax on unrealised capital gains.

Using super and wealth data from the ABS, the study applies a crude test to estimate the number of people that may struggle to pay an unrealised capital gain tax liability. 

The study models a scenario where an individual with $4 million in super records a 10% gain, and assuming no contributions or withdrawals, incurs an extra tax of about $19,000 (the tax liability would be 0.15 x (($4.4m - $3m) / $4.4m) x $400,000 = $19,091).

If that extra tax is more than 10% of the household’s disposable income and other wealth (wealth not in super or in the home), then that household fails the stress test.

In this case, the household could struggle to pay the tax if they are also unable to easily pay the tax from their super savings.

The research finds that only around 500 of the 87,000 individuals with super balances exceeding $3 million, or 0.6%, fail the stress test.

If the model assumes a 20% capital gain, 750 households or 0.9% fail the test.

The study concludes that “the impact of the extra tax would likely be relatively easily absorbed by the vast majority of impacted households.”

Taxing unrealised capital gains is still a bad idea

The study deliberately stays away from giving an opinion on whether taxing unrealised gains is good policy or not. I won’t be so shy.

Most people that I speak to are at least open to the idea of the super tax.

The lack of indexing is difficult to fathom though I suspect that the government didn’t want to include it in government budget forecasts heading into the election and may relent on the issue at some point soon.

The tax on unrealised capital gains is the bigger headscratcher. Why do it? To force people out of SMSFs? To punish farmers? I’m not sure. Whatever its motivations, it is messy, complex, and unnecessary.

It’s likely to result in those with super balances of more than $3 million diversifying at least part of their balances into other assets (is it contributing to the recent rise in house prices?). That will mean less revenue from the tax than the government estimates.

More broadly, time will tell whether the new rules improve fairness in the super system or decrease trust in super as a vehicle for retirement savings.

 

James Gruber is Editor of Firstlinks.

 

19 Comments
Errol
July 03, 2025

There needs to be a more holistic approach to taxing “wealthy” individuals who may use super as a tax effective means to transfer wealth to the next generation. Little has been said about “wealthy” individuals with modest superannuation balances but living in $3m+ properties and drawing full pensions. Surely this needs to be part of the discussion.
Perhaps a threshold (indexed) on property value and then reduction in pension for those over supported by a reverse mortgage so they are not required to sell the home or lose income.
Without a holistic tax review, many facing the Div 296 tax will withdraw super funds and update the family residence or seek out other forms of tax effective investment to side step the tax.
The Govt is unlikely to go there as it would be massively unpopular with voters but should be part of the discussion

James#
July 03, 2025

How about a major wind back of overly generous politicians super. I doubt whether the likes of Albo and Wayne Swan et al need the tax payer to fund pensions in the order of $300-400 k pa indexed for life. Seems overly generous!

John Abernethy belled the cat on the relatively hidden fact that presently the tax payer is paying out $20 B pa for retired public service pensions, and growing, and that the Future Fund is going to be woefully inadequate at covering these and future obligations. What's good for the goose......

Ah but that would require real reform, guts and taking on the unions etc

GeorgeB
July 04, 2025

“many facing the Div 296 tax will withdraw super funds and update the family residence or seek out other forms of tax effective investment to side step the tax”

If over a 40 + year working career you have lost at least one HALF of your income/wealth to income taxes, sales taxes, GST, stamp duties, LCT, budget repair levies, gun levies, rates and property taxes, CGT, etc etc. it should not be a surprise that you may want to take steps to protect the other HALF from the clutches of revenue hungry governments that don't always spend it that well.

Scully
July 04, 2025

GeorgeB, I hope you haven't used roads, hospitals or schools, relied on ambulance, police or firies for assistance, enjoyed the societal benefits of government services or generally lived in Australia. If you have, then you've benefited from the half of your wealth that you have supposedly lost. 

Mark
July 04, 2025

Well said . Been there done that apparently
We have done too well of a job .so now they say it is tax avoidance .say it long enough
And pepole will believe it

Dudley
July 03, 2025

"Nirvana in the socialist world (where Australia is heading) is that regardless of how much you contribute or save, everyone gets the same!":

No need, or point, to struggle to improve. No progress.

Dudley
July 03, 2025

Make super uncompetitive with, or more hassliferous than, Palazzos and Tax Havens and watch it wither.
'Show me the dis-incentive, I'll show you the outcome.'

Better to have a legal Tax Haven domicile in Australia, called 'Super', which invests locally creating business, employment, taxes, repatriated profits.

Alternatively, abolish:
. Super,
. Age Pension Means Tests,
. Inflation 'Stealth Tax',
. Uncompetetive tax rates.

Wildcat
July 03, 2025

I would believe if the government changed 296 to:

1. Drop the threshold to $2m
2. Index it in line with the current transfer balance cap (TBC) from 1st July of $2m
3. Make the tax on fund income (realised capital gains) on the proportion over the TBC.

Almost everyone would say fine, we could all move on.

The ultimate stupidity of 296 is large balances will potentially be removed and the government will not collect the 15-17% of CAPITAL of the taxable component when these large account members die. The benefit to the Commonwealth will therefore be vastly overstated to their likely realisation of tax revenue. Time to go back to the expenditure side of the budget Jimbo.

GeorgeB
July 03, 2025

“if the government changed 296 to: Drop the threshold to $2m”
Making the div 296 tax threshold the same as the TBC threshold would effectively mean that funds in retirement are taxed either at 0% below the threshold or 30% above, thus eliminating the 15% threshold and making the system less progressive.

“The ultimate stupidity of 296 is large balances will potentially be removed and the government will not collect the 15-17% of CAPITAL of the taxable component when these large account members die.”

This comment ignores the reality that unusually large super balances were accumulated via large non-concessional or after tax contributions which are not subject to the death tax. In fact one strategy to reduce this tax in retirement is to re-contribute pension funds as non-concessional to reduce the taxable proportion.

RichardL
July 03, 2025

"The tax on unrealised capital gains ... is messy, complex, and unnecessary."

I'm sorry, but anyone with this view doesn't understand Div 296 or the complexities of alternative ways of increasing tax on large balances. Div 296 tax can be calculated by the ATO - very simply - from data it already receives, no matter how many accounts an individual has. But to do that, the earnings base has to include unrealised gains. There is not enough data available to the ATO to exclude URG from an individual's earnings calculation.

Anyone can have any number of super accounts. And no-one has mounted an argument as to why this should not be permitted (as opposed to why having only one account is often in a person's best interests). And your super fund trustee doesn't know what other accounts you hold or what your TSB is.

So, unless that changes, to get the URG data for every individual with a TSB >$3m, the ATO would have to get URG data for EVERY account in every super fund. That's a huge extra cost, just to raise some tax on a small percentage of individuals (or to push their excess out of the super system).

The Div 296 "tax on unrealised gains" is not "messy", nor is it "complex". And, if an additional tax is to be levied without a major reporting impost on all super funds, it doesn't seem to be "unnecessary".

To me, the obvious alternative would have been to require a proportion (say, 20%) of the excess over $3m at 30 June to be removed in the following financial year. Not the whole of the excess, because the balance will have moved (up or down) by the time the ATO has collated and analysed its data. (Therefore, a hard cap is simply not practical.)

This withdrawal requirement would have its own problems, including rules for any limits to how much can be removed and what would constitute compliance with the (say) 20% requirement. But the bigger problem for those who hate Div 296 would be the need to sell off part of the farm - and pay tax on the realised gain.

Dudley
July 03, 2025

"There is not enough data available to the ATO to exclude URG from an individual's earnings calculation.":

Not enough data reported to ATO. Currently.

Just need to break reported Member 'Allocated earnings' into:
. Member Real allocated earnings, and,
. Member Unrealised (imaginary) earnings.
and add to tax return / report to ATO.

A trice. Data is currently available at Member level. Not reported because ATO did not ask.

Tom
July 03, 2025

A reminder, that a couple with $1.5 m each, could find a surviving spouse with $3m in superannuation when a partner dies. I suspect people with over $3m will quickly escalate.

Mark
July 03, 2025

I used to encourage my adult children (in their late thirties) to contribute extra into Super. But not any more! There are better more flexible vehicles to make investments as this won't be the last change from this Govt.

CC
July 03, 2025

it doesn't matter if people can afford to pay it. Taxing unrealised gains is fundamentally wrong and just daylight robbery. It's the start of a slippery slope.

Steve
July 03, 2025

No one needs more than 3 million in superannuation to have a dignified retirement. It’s daylight robbery to allow this accumulation of wealth to continue.

It’s a clunky tax on increasingly excessive wealth, closing an obvious inheritance loophole exploited, for the most part, by very wealthy people.

Hopefully it is the start of changes to make our tax system fairer.

It’s perfectly fair to close tax loopholes, to ensure superannuation functions as intended.

Disgruntled
July 03, 2025

I've said the same since murmurings of this new tax started a few years back.

$3M is more than fair for a Superannuation Account, if you have more or want more for retirement it doesn't need to be in Superannuation.

They should just Cap it at $3M (indexed like the TBC is)

GeorgeB
July 03, 2025

We need to be careful not to conflate the morality of taxing unrealized gains which may be volatile and have little or no bearing on actual gains, with the debate about what should be a reasonable cap on super (Paul Keating sometimes called the father of our super system thinks it should be about $5m). In any event it should be an amount that will (conservatively) generate in retirement a fair margin over the aged pension, otherwise what is the incentive to sacrifice current for future consumption (assuming that aged pensions are not universally abolished).

James#
July 03, 2025

" In any event it should be an amount that will (conservatively) generate in retirement a fair margin over the aged pension, otherwise what is the incentive to sacrifice current for future consumption (assuming that aged pensions are not universally abolished)."

Nirvana in the socialist world (where Australia is heading) is that regardless of how much you contribute or save, everyone gets the same!

John
July 04, 2025

If no-one needs more than $3m in super. Put a cap on super balances at $3m(indexed) and pay out the balance regardless of age.

Why doesn't the government do this? Probably because they would prefer the money in the highly regulated super environment where they can tax it

 

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