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Take my money and lie to me… again

This will be the third time I’ve written specifically about private assets under the “take my money and lie to me” title, and honestly, I wish I didn’t have to do it.

The first time I did so, in December of 2022, a large Canadian mortgage lender with a sterling reputation decided that they would suspend redemptions on a fund that was marketed to investors as a safe, high-yielding fixed income alternative. As I write this in early 2026, the fund still has not resumed business as usual.

The investment returns, once reliably in the high single digits, since turned negative.

Oops!

But this was just the first of many. There are others. I have a client who owns one of these failing private funds from their prior advisor. We are trying to help them sell this thing, to no avail. Last quarter the fund manager was able to redeem 0.07% of the requested units for sale. That’s not a typo. That’s seven one-hundredths of one percent.

In other words, the client is effectively trapped.

And then earlier this month, news hit that yet another private Canadian real estate investment fund would be freezing redemptions, and is considering going public to grant their unitholders liquidity. This seems to be to be a fascinating opportunity to see what kind of value the public markets are willing to place on non-traded assets. I’m not sure exactly how this story ends, but it could accelerate the rush out of private funds.

(In case you’re wondering, I’m purposely leaving out the names of these firms to avoid dealing with the inevitable blowback from advisors who have client money in these funds. Let’s just say, if you know, you know. And you probably wish you didn’t.)

Look, there’s a clear pattern emerging here, and it’s not limited to the Canadian real estate market. South of the border, things are not going too great either. Blue Owl Capital (Redefining alternatives®) can’t seem to get its name out of the news.

But don’t forget about BlackRock, which limited redemptions in a flagship private credit fund for the first time ever.

Or Blackstone, which reportedly had to inject $400 million of its own capital into a fund to meet redemption requests.

Or this private German pension fund for dentists that blew up €1.1 billion speculating in private assets (oops!)

Meanwhile, this week the FT published a piece explaining how two private equity firms are offering UBS Wealth Management a cut of their performance fees in exchange for pushing their private capital products to their client base, made up of some of the world’s wealthiest private client investors. This isn’t unique, and it tells you a lot about whose interests your high end ‘wealth manager’ is serving when he or she loads your portfolio up with these funds. While the current investors are clamoring to get out, your ‘trusted advisor’ is using your wealth to provide exit liquidity.

Tone deaf marketing (aka making stuff up and hoping they don’t notice)

And while these private funds increasingly show signs of cracking and buckling under a complete lack of liquidity, the salespeople do their best to keep the cash pouring in from new investors. Coincidentally, this week I happened to come across this slide from a Canadian institutional money manager’s marketing deck, outlining their expected returns under various economic scenarios.

I’m at a bit of a loss for words here, but here is one that comes to mind: bul**hit.

The manager expects that in a stagflationary or recessionary economy, public market equities will get crushed. But private equity, and ‘non-traditional’ income (private debt) will somehow, magically, do just fine.

Now, I just gave you examples of private debt funds around the world imploding, all while global stock markets are clinging near all-time highs. If the stock market falls 10-30%, as the manager believes will happen in these potential scenarios, there is no plausible scenario where these private assets go UP. None.

This goes beyond bad investing, or poor investor education. It’s misleading marketing. Less charitably, it’s a [complete and utter] lie.

It’s why I write my newsletter. It’s why I wrote this book. Thanks for reading and thanks for your support!

 

Geoff Saab is the author of Low Risk Rules: A Wealth Preservation Manifesto, and writes a free newsletter at lowriskrules.substack.com

 

  •   25 March 2026
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12 Comments
Fund Board member
March 26, 2026

Yes, the issue with private credit funds isn't so much the asset class, but the awful way it's often sold.

At least most of the private credit funds had it in their fund offer documents a clear statement that liquidity was at the discretion of the manager and 100% redemption proceeds was not guaranteed. I reckon you could count in the fingers of an amputated hand how many sales folk pointed that out to potential investors, though.

Having said that, though, I've looked at the Target Market Determination documents for a few local private credit funds and there's room for improvement there. For customers needing daily liquidity, although they have a comment that says liquidity isn't guaranteed, the colour of the box is still Green. Surely that needs to be reviewed and should at least be Amber.

We should have learned from what happened to mortgage funds in Australia that cracked under the pressure of the GFC. They were all too often sold as a higher yielding alternative to term deposits. I gave many a presentation to groups of advisers saying 'DON'T sell them like that. They have some credit risk, but they also have liquidity risk under stressed circumstances.' These were the reasons they were higher yielding! But the incentive payment structures for advisers at the time meant they just ignored those warnings.
Although able to meet their liquidity promises during normal times, as soon as the GFC hit and the government guaranteed ADI term deposits, investors wanted their money in droves and the mortgage funds couldn't provide it.

It was a salient lesson in tail risk. Things don't often go wrong, but when they do the consequences are severe. That risk needs to be acknowledged more openly and managed a lot better.

I do think that super funds in private credit have a better handle on this. They typically use mandates, so other investor behaviour can't force the sale of assets in their portfolio the way holding units in a public fund is now doing. And also, because it's a mandate held at appropriate proportions within their whole fund, they aren't relying on quick liquidity. Their intention is to hold for the long term and they don't count those funds as tier 1 liquidity holdings.

5
Barry
March 29, 2026

Totally disagree with this article. Last year, in 2025, the stockmarket lost about 18% between February and April due to the Trump tarrifs and none of the Australian private credit funds missed any payments and none of them went broke.

Also, with Bernie Maddoff, investors in his ponzi scheme got back 93.7% of their capital back via the The DOJ Madoff Victim Fund, which is much better than if they invested it in the stockmarket and lost 50% in the GFC or lost 30% during Covid-19 or lost 18% last year from the Trump panic. Ironically, you could say that investing in Bernie Maddoff was actually safer than going into the stock market.

5
Kim
March 26, 2026

Thank you for your insights, Geoff. As a retired credit manager in a major bank, I would not touch these funds. Guess I'm conservative, but have been around long enough to see what happens when the going gets tough. Yes, I did sell Mortgage funds at one stage in my career, and pulled back when things were tightening. I am really surprised to see David Kock (ex Channel 7 -Sunrise)sprouting one particular fund in company with a man extolling the benefits. Right at the end, there's fine print - but of course too quick and too small to read. Not worth the risk.

3
Fund Board member
March 26, 2026

Though Kim, the vast majority of them are investing in the same credits that you would have approved in your role as a bank credit manager. Or were you just personal credit, not business credit?

The issue with the funds is primarily their product structure and ability to deal with liquidity stress, not their credit risk. (That was the challenge for mortgage funds in the GFC - there were actually few credit losses on their loans.) Most of them are quite well diversified and do detailed credit assessments on the issues, just like you would have at the bank. And many of them have been around for a long time as credit managers and have good relationships with their investors who actually understand the timeframes over which they need to invest. There are exceptions and definitely some that I wouldn't invest in either, but to simply 'not touch these funds' is branding a whole sector of the industry with the same brush and that's not warranted.

Saying that is not the same thing as saying that they've been sold properly. They needed to be sold as going up the risk spectrum to earn a higher return, with clear outlines of what the risks are and how they are managed by the fund. That is what has been sadly lacking across the industry.

2
CC
March 29, 2026

just because investors are rushing to exit does not necessarily mean that the fund is doing badly, as pointed out by some of these managers who show that the underlying fund is doing fine.
Investor behaviour is often irrational and nonsensical.

3
Justin
March 26, 2026

Why did Bernie go to jail?

Sounds somewhat familiar.

Fund Board member
March 26, 2026

What an unhelpful comment! Who is Bernie and how is his experience relevant? How is it familiar?

If you mean Bernie Madoff then the issue with private credit is NOTHING LIKE a Ponzi scheme. There are genuine, income earning assets in private crefit. So it's also an inaccurate comment.

4
Francis H
March 27, 2026

From what I understand Private Credit involves lending money to people like real estate developers at high interest rates. What could go wrong ? We have been dealing with this stuff for 50 years or more. Back in the 60s and 70s individual investors were sucked in to companies like Cambridge Credit and Charters Towers Finance. The latter was offering interest rates of 13 % which was double the rates on term deposits. Both went bust. Now institutional investors invest in something similar and give it a fancy name . If somebody is willing to pay double the rate of interest available from the normal banks does that not tell you they are a credit risk ? The old saying if it looks too good to be true then it probably is should always be a warning. How institutional investors get sucked into this beggars belief.

Fund Board member
March 27, 2026

Francis H, the sector is a LOT bigger than just real estate development lending. Some funds include that, though usually as part of a broader portfolio, but others don't. The most common description of the range of assets is something like "corporate, asset-backed and real estate loans", with the latter usually confined to traditional commercial mortgages (such as lending to a private investor who owns a warehouse on a busy suburban road that's rented to an auto repair shop0.

The examples you site could be added to - Estate Mortgage comes to mind in the 1980's - but that is not what private credit funds are about.

I know that my first comment on this article was supporting the argument that there are significant issues with private credit funds, but this was only in terms of how they were sold to investors in relation to the nature of their risks. The funds themselves are mostly really well managed and a well informed investor (like the super fund on whose Board I sit) who knows how to place them within their overall portfolio gets a solid yield and return enhancement by taking the liquidity risk inherent in the sector. Hence my response to several comments since that have picked up the article and talked about other issues that aren't the problems that folk like you seem to imagine.

So perhaps your understanding needs to be better informed than labelling an entire industry as being in the same category as a couple of very poorly structured offerings in Australia's past.

Francis H
March 27, 2026

Fund Board Member, my comments are those of the person in the street who does not have the experience or wherewithal to do the research into these products unlike those in the know. You seem to acknowledge that the products are sold in many cases without adequately explaining the risks. To my mind that is a good reason not to invest in them. There are obviously problems with some of them in the US , even well known names. If they are not being marketed truthfully them there are obviously problems. The Article by Geoff Saab illustrates this well. Like any market product they can fall victim to a loss of confidence. Confidence is never inspired by hiding things as the marketing seems to do. I guess we will just have to wait on events.

2
Paul
March 28, 2026

And there lies the issue. I think people are quite happy with the credit and operational decisions of the big banks (for a lower return) and have issues with “private credit” because while they do offer higher yield, have little tangible modern track records or reputation that people can rely on.The biggest issue is transparency which is lacking so one does not know who they are lending to except for general sweeping statement about possible sectors that they may or may not be exposed to.

Fund Board member
March 28, 2026

Francis, you are absolutely correct - if you don't understand an investment you shouldn't put your money in it.
That's not what you said at first - you said you wouldn't touch them because of the kinds of investments they made. And you expressed disbelief that anyone would get sucked into these investments. Perhaps you should have just said "I personally don't understand these funds so haven’t invested in them" .
I was seeking to correct your misunderstanding. That's part of what FirstLinks is here for, so that hopefully people who do understand things can explain them. The sector doesn't deserve ridicule like you expressed in your first comment.
The issues with some funds in the US having often been sold inaccurately are genuine, but your comment ventured an opinion on the kinds of investments they make, which is a different matter entirely.

 

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