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4 October 2025
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Rising oil prices and the sharemarket, cynicism and credit risk, the amazing life of hedge fund legend Sir Michael Hintze, Ben Graham's wisdom and how the minor parties won a seat.
In the world of credit risk, you need to understand the capacity of the borrower to pay what they’ve promised, then assume that they will let you down anyway and avoid concentrating your portfolio.
In the short term, the market is a popularity contest, where prices often diverge significantly from that which is justified by the economic performance of the business. But in the long term, prices follow business performance.
Rising oil prices may sound scary to investors, but if we go beyond the popular myth and look at the facts, we see a very different picture. Rising oil prices are more often accompanied by rising stocks.
There is a potential trading opportunity in every major event, natural or man-made. But whatever you do, it's important to make a positive difference with your life, according to this Australian legend of the hedge fund industry.
The critical point is that the number of first preference votes cast for minor parties in Victoria was greater than one quota. We got what we voted for, and the system allowed minor party voters to deny a major party seat.
This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.
An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.
LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.
Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?
Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?
This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.