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Edition: 490

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 490 with weekend update

  • 5 January 2023
  • 10

The best investors have a similar trait to the best gamblers: they bet when the odds are overwhelmingly in their favour. Investors such as Bill Gross, Edward Thorp, and Charlie Munger used a probabilistic mindset to beat markets.

Doubling down on dividends

Capital growth may disappoint over the next decade, making dividends critical to investor returns. The best stocks will be those that pay consistent, high dividends and are inexpensive.

Retail investors aren't buying the dip

Australian retail investors appear pessimistic about the market outlook with cash allocations at record highs. Those buying prefer materials and energy stocks, while fallen angels such as Magellan are out of favour. 

Why investment grade credit looks attractive

Markets are pricing in rate cuts, but they will be disappointed as rates plateau at a higher level through 2023. That means that investors will have a way to generate returns - using bonds - without being forced into higher risk assets.

What to do about our distorted relationship with money

We’re in a rare moment in history where the term premium has been negative for a number of years.  History suggests that won't last, and here are the best ways to position your portfolio to benefit from the change.

Active or passive – it’s time to change the narrative

The active versus passive debate rests on the lazy assumption that it's not possible to consistently choose managers that outperform. Both the premise and (hence) the narrative are flawed.

Compelling investment opportunities in healthcare

The biggest structural stories in healthcare will involve cell and gene therapies, and genomics. Companies that supply those developing vaccines and other therapies are where the best investment opportunities lie.

The 1970s offer a helpful framework for today's markets

Like in the 1970s, today's investors face challenges of inflation, cold war, and fraying global trade ties - but unlike then, there's now high debt and environmental problems. Here's how to best navigate the difficult backdrop.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Australia has no death duties. Technically.

Australia may not levy formal death duties, but a growing web of tax measures is quietly shaping what wealth passes between generations. Now, the 2026 budget adds another layer.

How to minimise tax with a will

Inheritance tax implications in Australia may surprise some, as poor estate planning without proper wills or trusts can lead to costly tax bills and delays for beneficiaries.

Testamentary trusts post-budget: Estate planning, tax reform and the ‘death tax’ debate

Proposed Budget changes to taxation are casting new uncertainty over testamentary trusts, prompting closer scrutiny of estate planning structures and the real implications of reforms still taking shape.

Back to the future - Why indexing CGT is a good idea

A return to indexation of capital gains would be a fairer way to compensate households for the effects of inflation than the current discount. Importantly, it opens the door to future, broader reforms to stop the taxation of inflation.

Meg on SMSFs: The CGT changes don’t impact super but what about Div 296 tax decisions?

New CGT rules could tip the scales in the super vs non-super debate. For those facing the Division 296 tax, the case for withdrawing has gotten more complex. A "comparison rate" tool may help assess decisions.

High quality businesses are on sale

Beneath the dominance of the ASX's largest stocks, much of the market has been left behind. High-quality companies are now trading at levels rarely seen, offering opportunities for investors willing to look deeper.

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