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27 February 2026
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The best investors have a similar trait to the best gamblers: they bet when the odds are overwhelmingly in their favour. Investors such as Bill Gross, Edward Thorp, and Charlie Munger used a probabilistic mindset to beat markets.
Capital growth may disappoint over the next decade, making dividends critical to investor returns. The best stocks will be those that pay consistent, high dividends and are inexpensive.
Australian retail investors appear pessimistic about the market outlook with cash allocations at record highs. Those buying prefer materials and energy stocks, while fallen angels such as Magellan are out of favour.
Markets are pricing in rate cuts, but they will be disappointed as rates plateau at a higher level through 2023. That means that investors will have a way to generate returns - using bonds - without being forced into higher risk assets.
We’re in a rare moment in history where the term premium has been negative for a number of years. History suggests that won't last, and here are the best ways to position your portfolio to benefit from the change.
The active versus passive debate rests on the lazy assumption that it's not possible to consistently choose managers that outperform. Both the premise and (hence) the narrative are flawed.
The biggest structural stories in healthcare will involve cell and gene therapies, and genomics. Companies that supply those developing vaccines and other therapies are where the best investment opportunities lie.
Like in the 1970s, today's investors face challenges of inflation, cold war, and fraying global trade ties - but unlike then, there's now high debt and environmental problems. Here's how to best navigate the difficult backdrop.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.