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Edition: 533

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 533 with weekend update

  • 2 November 2023
  • 4

Economic data suggests everything is fine in the US and Australia. Yet, the stock market is saying US commercial banks are again in trouble, and if right, that could soon restrict credit and impact economic growth.

The challenges of building a lazy portfolio

John Bogle famously advocated a two-fund portfolio of US stocks and bonds. Recently, I tried to create an Australian version of the Bogle portfolio and found that what seems simple can quickly turn complicated.

ASX tool for interest rates bets needs an overhaul

News outlets and RBA watchers use a handy tool from the ASX to gauge market predictions for the RBA cash rate. Yet the tool has an obvious flaw that needs to be fixed to better reflect current monetary policy.

Why it's best to resist tactical asset allocation

As interest rates normalise, investors have been pouring money into cash and bonds, and out of equities. This type of tactical asset allocation may seem sensible though it's unlikely to deliver the best long-term results.

Podcast: UniSuper's John Pearce, today's GFC similarities, LIC news

Special guest, UniSuper CIO John Pearce, on where he's putting money, Peter on how today's events bear similarities to those before the financial crisis, and Graham updates us on the latest developments in LICs.

How likely are market crashes?

It is well known that equities are subject to both booms and busts, testing the discipline of most investors. New research proposes a framework for assessing the likelihood of large equity market drawdowns.

A-REITs: what the market gloom is missing

Rising interest rates have hammered ASX property REITs, many of which are now trading at large discounts to their net tangible assets. Are A-REITs a major contrarian opportunity or another market value trap?

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Want your loved ones to inherit your super? You can’t afford to skip this one step

One in five Australians die before retirement and most have not set up their super properly so their loved ones can benefit from all their hard work and savings. 

Indexation implications – key changes to 2026/27 super thresholds

Stay on top of the latest changes to superannuation rates and thresholds for 2026, including increases to transfer balance cap, concessional contributions cap, and non-concessional contributions cap.

Has Australia wasted the last 30 years?

The 20 years after Peter Costello left Treasury have been deemed wasted...by Peter Costello. The missed opportunities for Australia began long before.  

Super is catching up, but ageing is a triple-threat

An ageing Australia is shifting the superannuation system’s focus from accumulation to the lifecycle of retirement. While these pressures have been anticipated for decades, they are now converging at scale and driving widespread industry change.

The refinery problem: A different kind of energy crisis in 2026

The Strait of Hormuz closure due to US-Iran conflict severely disrupted global energy supply chains. While various emergency measures mitigated the crude impact, the refined product market faces unprecedented stress.

3 ways to defuse intergenerational anger

With the upcoming budget increasingly likely to include bold proposals to alter the tax code I’ve outlined three incremental steps with fewer unintended consequences.

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