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6 March 2026
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Economic data suggests everything is fine in the US and Australia. Yet, the stock market is saying US commercial banks are again in trouble, and if right, that could soon restrict credit and impact economic growth.
John Bogle famously advocated a two-fund portfolio of US stocks and bonds. Recently, I tried to create an Australian version of the Bogle portfolio and found that what seems simple can quickly turn complicated.
News outlets and RBA watchers use a handy tool from the ASX to gauge market predictions for the RBA cash rate. Yet the tool has an obvious flaw that needs to be fixed to better reflect current monetary policy.
As interest rates normalise, investors have been pouring money into cash and bonds, and out of equities. This type of tactical asset allocation may seem sensible though it's unlikely to deliver the best long-term results.
Special guest, UniSuper CIO John Pearce, on where he's putting money, Peter on how today's events bear similarities to those before the financial crisis, and Graham updates us on the latest developments in LICs.
It is well known that equities are subject to both booms and busts, testing the discipline of most investors. New research proposes a framework for assessing the likelihood of large equity market drawdowns.
Rising interest rates have hammered ASX property REITs, many of which are now trading at large discounts to their net tangible assets. Are A-REITs a major contrarian opportunity or another market value trap?
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.
Most commentary on gold's recent record highs focus on it being the product of fear or speculative momentum. That's ignoring the deeper structural drivers at play.