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Edition: 533

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 533 with weekend update

  • 2 November 2023
  • 4

Economic data suggests everything is fine in the US and Australia. Yet, the stock market is saying US commercial banks are again in trouble, and if right, that could soon restrict credit and impact economic growth.

The challenges of building a lazy portfolio

John Bogle famously advocated a two-fund portfolio of US stocks and bonds. Recently, I tried to create an Australian version of the Bogle portfolio and found that what seems simple can quickly turn complicated.

ASX tool for interest rates bets needs an overhaul

News outlets and RBA watchers use a handy tool from the ASX to gauge market predictions for the RBA cash rate. Yet the tool has an obvious flaw that needs to be fixed to better reflect current monetary policy.

Why it's best to resist tactical asset allocation

As interest rates normalise, investors have been pouring money into cash and bonds, and out of equities. This type of tactical asset allocation may seem sensible though it's unlikely to deliver the best long-term results.

Podcast: UniSuper's John Pearce, today's GFC similarities, LIC news

Special guest, UniSuper CIO John Pearce, on where he's putting money, Peter on how today's events bear similarities to those before the financial crisis, and Graham updates us on the latest developments in LICs.

How likely are market crashes?

It is well known that equities are subject to both booms and busts, testing the discipline of most investors. New research proposes a framework for assessing the likelihood of large equity market drawdowns.

A-REITs: what the market gloom is missing

Rising interest rates have hammered ASX property REITs, many of which are now trading at large discounts to their net tangible assets. Are A-REITs a major contrarian opportunity or another market value trap?

Most viewed in recent weeks

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Four best-ever charts for every adviser and investor

In any year since 1875, if you'd invested in the ASX, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods. It's just one of the must-have stats that all investors should know.

Why super returns may be heading lower

Five mega trends point to risks of a more inflation prone and lower growth environment. This, along with rich market valuations, should constrain medium term superannuation returns to around 5% per annum.

Preparing for aged care

Whether for yourself or a family member, it’s never too early to start thinking about aged care. This looks at the best ways to plan ahead, as well as the changes coming to aged care from November 1 this year.

Our experts on Jim Chalmers' super tax backdown

Labor has caved to pressure on key parts of the Division 296 tax, though also added some important nuances. Here are six experts’ views on the changes and what they mean for you.        

Why I dislike dividend stocks

If you need income then buying dividend stocks makes perfect sense. But if you don’t then it makes little sense because it’s likely to limit building real wealth. Here’s what you should do instead.

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