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Edition: 540

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 540 with weekend update

  • 21 December 2023
  • 12

New ABS forecasts highlight how quickly our population will age, and investors need to prepare now for the enormous changes that it will bring. Further limits on super and the pension seem inevitable in the long-term.

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade

By our estimate, housing is 40% overvalued, making it one of the world's priciest assets and even more expensive than the 'Magnificent Seven' US tech stocks. That doesn't bode well for future returns from property.

5 big calls for 2024

We're likely to see higher interest rates for longer as inflation pressures remain elevated both here and the US. The top picks for 2024 centre around being defensive and looking for pockets of opportunity.

Lessons from 2023

Key takeaways from this year include economic outlooks have limited usefulness in positioning portfolios, and there’s a difference between falling prices and cheap assets, and that difference matters a great deal.

Picking your retirement point

One of the hardest decisions for many people – excluding those who want to keep on working – is choosing when to stop. Moving into pension mode is a big decision, and here are some options and considerations.

Buying miners for a new regime

Decarbonisation will be a driving theme for markets for decades to come, and estimates of its costs are still far too low. It will benefit mining companies as demand will be structurally higher going forwards.

Meg on SMSFs: Facts and figures 2023/24

This is your Quick Reference Guide for the year’s important facts and figures. It includes what you need to know on personal tax rates and offsets, as well as super contributions, caps, benefits, and thresholds.

It's time small and mid-caps play catchup

In recent years, large caps returns have dwarfed those of small and mid-caps, especially in the US. 2024 could be the year that reverses as earnings growth re-accelerates for higher quality smaller companies.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Australia has no death duties. Technically.

Australia may not levy formal death duties, but a growing web of tax measures is quietly shaping what wealth passes between generations. Now, the 2026 budget adds another layer.

How to minimise tax with a will

Inheritance tax implications in Australia may surprise some, as poor estate planning without proper wills or trusts can lead to costly tax bills and delays for beneficiaries.

Testamentary trusts post-budget: Estate planning, tax reform and the ‘death tax’ debate

Proposed Budget changes to taxation are casting new uncertainty over testamentary trusts, prompting closer scrutiny of estate planning structures and the real implications of reforms still taking shape.

Back to the future - Why indexing CGT is a good idea

A return to indexation of capital gains would be a fairer way to compensate households for the effects of inflation than the current discount. Importantly, it opens the door to future, broader reforms to stop the taxation of inflation.

Meg on SMSFs: The CGT changes don’t impact super but what about Div 296 tax decisions?

New CGT rules could tip the scales in the super vs non-super debate. For those facing the Division 296 tax, the case for withdrawing has gotten more complex. A "comparison rate" tool may help assess decisions.

High quality businesses are on sale

Beneath the dominance of the ASX's largest stocks, much of the market has been left behind. High-quality companies are now trading at levels rarely seen, offering opportunities for investors willing to look deeper.

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