Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Register

29 August 2026

Home / White Papers 2023

Global investment outlook: this isn’t 2008

This is not a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis

Overview of the Franklin Templeton Institute’s April Global Investment Outlook, featuring insights from Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, Western Asset Management, ClearBridge Investments, Benefit Street Partners and Clarion Partners.

Today’s banking ‘crisis’ is far less severe than 2008, and it’s not systemic. Indeed, the quality of overall bank assets and capital ratios are dramatically better. Central banks are now coordinating globally to offer banks daily access to the capital they need to operate smoothly. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failed because of a mismatch between its short-term depositors who were withdrawing assets and its longer-term assets, mostly US Treasuries, that had dropped in value as interest rates increased.

Key takeaways from the outlook paper include:

  • The banking system will almost certainly get more oversight and regulation. Much of this oversight will likely be focused on regional banks. We continue to see investment opportunities within regional banks, but each bank will need to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, not as a group.
  • Cash deposits are moving from regional banks to money market funds. More deposits are leaving the banking system. Money market funds have been the biggest beneficiary; with over US$286 billion of inflows in March, this has brought money market balances to the highest level on record. Bigger banks are also benefiting according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, as flows to the largest 25 banks increased by US$120 billion.
  • Who are potential winners against this backdrop? We see opportunities in income, especially fixed income and dividend paying equity. We generally favour investment-grade and sovereign debt, while the outlook for emerging market local currency debt also looks promising. Non-US equity is apt to be attractive as China reopens and Europe shows more resilience than expected.
  • Private credit will likely be one of the beneficiaries. Private credit will likely replace some of the current regional bank loans. We believe the current market disruptions may present the most attractive investment opportunity for private debt since the GFC.

For more detailed insights and outlooks from the Franklin Templeton Investment teams, read the complete April Global Investment Outlook.

  •   1 May 2023
  •      
  •   

 

Leave a Comment:
Firstlinks is sponsored by:
banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Are you making these SMSF mistakes?

After four decades advising investors, there are a few common mistakes I've seen SMSF investors make. From holding too much cash and chasing yield to overtrading and trusting tips. Are these errors costing you?

Why have Australian living standards 'fallen' and how do we fix it?

For the last few years there has been much talk of a 'cost-of-living' crisis in Australia and of 'falling living standards'. Lately this has flared up again with the pickup in inflation resulting in a renewed fall in real wages.

Will you run out of money in retirement?

Fear of running out has become a defining retirement anxiety. Why do some retirees die with substantial wealth while others deplete their nest egg? Evidence suggests the answer is more complicated than we think. 

Retirement spending is not one-size-fits-all

New data challenges the idea that Australians are underspending their super. The bigger issue may be helping retirees navigate complexity, make confident decisions and use their savings to support security, wellbeing and choice.

Four options for an income investor’s next dollar

What if Australia’s golden age of dividends is ending? Rather than overhaul your portfolio, it may be worth considering where new capital can work harder. I discuss four income strategies and the trade-offs behind each.

The missing link in the CGT debate

A little-noticed consequence of Labor’s tax changes could have implications well beyond investors’ tax bills. The issue raises bigger questions about incentives, capital allocation and the drivers of long-term economic growth.

Latest Updates

SMSF strategies

Meg on SMSFs: What do we think about reversionary pensions these days?

Reversionary pensions have long been a staple of SMSF estate planning, but are they still the best option? Meg Heffron revisits a once-clear favourite and asks whether changing super rules have shifted the balance.

The ageing ‘crisis’ has not and will not happen

Rising age dependency is frequently treated as a warning sign for economies. But when actual workforce participation is examined, a strikingly different picture emerges about ageing, productivity and economic sustainability.

Retirement

How does the 4% rule stack up?

The 4% rule has long been retirement's gold standard. But after a difficult period for investors, fresh analysis suggests a more conservative approach may significantly improve the chances of making savings last.

Shares

Four charts that expose market concentration risk

Investors have recently been rewarded for backing market leaders, but history suggests this eventually comes at a cost. Now may be the time to review whether your portfolio is carrying unintended risks beneath the surface.

Investment strategies

The case for gearing beyond property

Most Australians gear into property but ignore shares. That may be a mistake. Used carefully, geared equity strategies can enhance long-term returns, reduce cash tied up in growth assets and support retirement income goals.

Economy

Australia's $1 trillion debt pile

The headlines exclaiming that Australian government debt has hit A$1 trillion and US government debt has hit $40 trillion has turned heads, but how serious are they really? Will Australia's mix of debt create challenges?

Economy

Has 100 years of growth made us any happier?

For decades, GDP has been the benchmark for economic success, but has it made us materially happier? If happiness does not rise in lockstep with prosperity, are we overlooking what constitutes a successful society?

Sponsors

Alliances

  • ASA-Logo-RGB-ActiveGreen-web.png

Site Map

About Firstlinks

© 2026 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.