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18 February 2026
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We investigate the pervasive but misunderstood price effects of stocks in the period surrounding their dividend payments. Known as “dividend run up” (DRU), we observe a positive excess return from tilting towards dividend paying stocks in the month (or slightly longer) prior to the ex-date. There are two separate effects to consider: the cum-dividend price run up, and the ex-dividend price drop off.
Note that this effect is often thought to be a tax effect specific to Australia. Investors who hold stocks that pay franked dividends in theory “go on strike” from selling for 45 days surrounding the dividend ex-date, in order to capture the franking credit along with the cash dividend. This creates price pressure which drives up prices. While this supposition appears to be at least partly true, the same effect manifests itself in unfranked dividend payers in Australia, and in many other markets around the world. There is more to this than just maximising dividends and franking. Note that this paper looks only at Australian stocks. Later work will extend it to other markets around the world.
Download the full paper
What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.
Treasury has released draft legislation for a new version of the controversial $3 million super tax. It's a significant improvement on the original proposal but there are some stings in the tail.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
We don’t have a housing shortage; we have housing misallocation. This explores why so many bedrooms go unused, what’s been tried before, and five things to unlock housing capacity – no new building required.
The predictions include dividends will outstrip growth as a source of Australian equity returns, US market performance will be underwhelming, while US government bonds will beat gold.
My mother developed dementia before eventually dying in June last year. She was in three aged care homes before finding the right one. Here is what I learned along the way.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
The assumption that falling house prices are electorally fatal has shaped policy for decades. Evidence from upzoning suggests affordability can improve without reducing overall housing wealth.
Investment bonds can be a versatile and a tax-effective option for building wealth for longer-term investment goals. They can also be used as an estate planning tool, enabling the smooth transfer of wealth to younger generations.
Investors are jumpy as valuations continue to rise and income investing may provide a respite. In a challenging market for income investing AML offers their top picks.
CEO Simon Doyle is retiring after 38 years in the finance industry. In an interview with James Gruber, he shares the three main lessons he’s learned, and where he sees opportunities and risks in markets today.
Investors may overlook the US midterms amid global events, but they could still impact markets. History shows markets react during midterm years, with increased volatility and lower returns. Will this year be any different?
Increasing geopolitical tensions has investors on edge but one study shows evidence of a war premium for equity markets.