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11 January 2026
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We investigate the pervasive but misunderstood price effects of stocks in the period surrounding their dividend payments. Known as “dividend run up” (DRU), we observe a positive excess return from tilting towards dividend paying stocks in the month (or slightly longer) prior to the ex-date. There are two separate effects to consider: the cum-dividend price run up, and the ex-dividend price drop off.
Note that this effect is often thought to be a tax effect specific to Australia. Investors who hold stocks that pay franked dividends in theory “go on strike” from selling for 45 days surrounding the dividend ex-date, in order to capture the franking credit along with the cash dividend. This creates price pressure which drives up prices. While this supposition appears to be at least partly true, the same effect manifests itself in unfranked dividend payers in Australia, and in many other markets around the world. There is more to this than just maximising dividends and franking. Note that this paper looks only at Australian stocks. Later work will extend it to other markets around the world.
Download the full paper
Two years ago, I wrote an article suggesting that the odds favoured ASX shares easily outperforming residential property over the next decade. Here’s an update on where things stand today.
The superannuation system has succeeded brilliantly at what it was designed to do: accumulate wealth during working lives. The next challenge is meeting members’ diverse needs in retirement.
At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.
I am a professional real estate investor who hears a lot of opinions rather than facts from so-called experts on the topic of property. Here are the largest myths when it comes to Australia’s biggest asset class.
In an interview with Firstlinks, CEO Mark Freeman discusses how speculative ASX stocks have crushed blue chips this year, companies he likes now, and why he’s confident AFIC’s NTA discount will close.
I’ve been comparing property and shares for decades and while both have their place, the differences are stark. When tax, costs, and liquidity are weighed, property looks less compelling than its reputation suggests.
Treasury has released draft legislation for a new version of the controversial $3 million super tax. It's a significant improvement on the original proposal but there are some stings in the tail.
The predictions include dividends will outstrip growth as a source of Australian equity returns, US market performance will be underwhelming, while US government bonds will beat gold.
We're about to add another million people to cities like Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne. How many hospitals and other essential infrastructure are needed to cater to a million more people? This breaks down the numbers.
The US dollar’s long-standing role as a ‘shock absorber’ during times of market stress is showing cracks. The ‘Liberation Day’ sell-off was a timely reminder of this, and here's what investors should do about it.
My mother developed dementia before eventually dying in June last year. She was in three aged care homes before finding the right one. Here is what I learned along the way.
China has flooded the world with electric cars and solar panels to offset the economic drag from a weak domestic property market. How long can this go on, and what are the implications for commodities and Australia?
Tesla copped criticism after its shareholders approved a package allowing Musk to earn up to $1 trillion in stock options. If only Australian businesses were more like Tesla.