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11 March 2026
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We investigate the pervasive but misunderstood price effects of stocks in the period surrounding their dividend payments. Known as “dividend run up” (DRU), we observe a positive excess return from tilting towards dividend paying stocks in the month (or slightly longer) prior to the ex-date. There are two separate effects to consider: the cum-dividend price run up, and the ex-dividend price drop off.
Note that this effect is often thought to be a tax effect specific to Australia. Investors who hold stocks that pay franked dividends in theory “go on strike” from selling for 45 days surrounding the dividend ex-date, in order to capture the franking credit along with the cash dividend. This creates price pressure which drives up prices. While this supposition appears to be at least partly true, the same effect manifests itself in unfranked dividend payers in Australia, and in many other markets around the world. There is more to this than just maximising dividends and franking. Note that this paper looks only at Australian stocks. Later work will extend it to other markets around the world.
Download the full paper
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.
One in five Australians die before retirement and most have not set up their super properly so their loved ones can benefit from all their hard work and savings.
An ageing Australia is shifting the superannuation system’s focus from accumulation to the lifecycle of retirement. While these pressures have been anticipated for decades, they are now converging at scale and driving widespread industry change.
Evidence for a strong reporting season had been piling up for months and validated an upgrade cycle already underway. However, risks remain from policy uncertainty.
Getting a mortgage is never an easy process but when an investment property is purchased in a SMSF the complexity increases significantly. Read this before taking the plunge.
Good advisers lead to more diversification, lower turnover and less home bias. However, studies show the average adviser may not be adding much value to clients.
When the new AFL season kicks off a wild-card will be added to the finals. Is this new formula fair and how does it impact the odds of winning the premiership.
Investors have historically balked at exchanging a lump sum for a future steam of income. Breaking down the financial and emotional considerations of purchasing an annuity.