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1 October 2026

Home / White Papers 2023

Regime shift: Characteristics and investment implications of the ‘Next’ economy

Written by Sebastian Mullins with contributions from Stuart Dear and Kellie Wood. These papers are the collective work of our domestic investment desks in collaboration with our global colleagues.

Part 1

The post-GFC years were characterised by low inflation, low interest rates, low macroeconomic volatility and strong asset price returns. However, these years also saw growing imbalances, such as worsening inequality, rising debt loads, supply-chain fragility and burgeoning geopolitical fractures. The post-Covid years have seen these issues come to the fore which took many by surprise, culminating in the largest spike in inflation since the 1970s. In this document, Part 1, we debate what the next decade may hold and the characteristics for this ‘Next’ economy.

Download the full paper

Part 2

Many market participants have only invested in structurally subdued inflation regimes. 2022 caught many off guard as inflation spiked to the highest levels since the 1970s, causing both bonds and equities to fall in tandem. In our previous paper we discussed the characteristics of the ‘Next’ economy, which we believe will have structurally higher inflation than experienced over the past decade. Here we discuss what this means for investors and how to consider positioning portfolios for this new regime.

Download the full paper

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