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18 August 2026
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Something unusual is happening in markets. The winners are pulling further ahead at an extraordinary pace. As return dispersion hits extreme levels, volatility is rising and the investing landscape is becoming harder to navigate.
It is almost impossible to identify a bubble in real time, and history shows they last far longer than we think, giving investors (perhaps misplaced) hope and short-sellers seemingly endless pain before the share price collapses.
Investor focus is turning increasingly to AI-related risks: is it a bubble about to burst, tipping the US into recession? Or is it the onset of a third industrial revolution? And what would either scenario mean for markets?
This gives comprehensive data on more than 100 years of boom and bust cycles on the US stock market - how the market performed during these cycles, where the current AI uptick sits, and what the future may hold.
One sign of today's speculative market froth is that retail investors are winning, and winning big. It bears remarkable similarities to 1929 and 1999, and this story may not have a happy ending either.
The Australian stock market has had almost 40 dips of 10% or more since 1920, with many of these triggered by weakness in the US. What would have happened in each case had you 'bought the dip'?
Every bubble is unique in its form and duration, yet they all share common qualities and stages. As for the current bubble in AI and quality stocks, we’ve had the displacement and the euphoria. Now for the distress.
Ancient Stoic philosophers had an idea called 'premeditatio malorum', that involves considering some of the worst things that can happen to you as a way of immunising yourself against them. It can be a useful tool for investors too.
Given the last decade delivered phenomenal stockmarket returns, investors should expect the next decade to prove more challenging. However, 'value' stocks are cheap, providing compelling opportunities for contrarian investors.
Increases in commodity prices have fuelled global inflation while benefiting commodities exporters like Australia. Oftentimes, booms lead to busts and investors need to get the timing right on pricing cycles to be successful.
There are enough negative factors in play to suggest great caution with asset allocation in portfolios, as a wonderful run of results for investors came to an end in 2018. Here are four common factors in market collapses.
Investors are complacent and expect double-digit profit growth to continue for many years, but the market consensus for EPS growth is now in dangerous territory with more downside potential than upside.
Treasury has confirmed the exemption many families were hoping for. But buried in the fine print are two conditions that could leave some wills on the wrong side of the exemption, despite years of careful planning.
The defining challenge of retirement isn't just about building wealth, it's about converting your lifetime savings into sustainable income. A holistic understanding of different strategies can improve long-term outcomes.
After four decades advising investors, there are a few common mistakes I've seen SMSF investors make. From holding too much cash and chasing yield to overtrading and trusting tips. Are these errors costing you?
Most Australians approaching retirement can tell you the exact dollar value of their super account. But success depends on more than a sizeable balance. Here's four key questions to ask yourself at the start of the financial year.
Lithium's latest sell-off has punished ASX miners as prices remain hostage to shifting expectations. The key challenge is navigating a market prone to extreme volatility despite a strong case for the long-term demand outlook.
New data challenges the idea that Australians are underspending their super. The bigger issue may be helping retirees navigate complexity, make confident decisions and use their savings to support security, wellbeing and choice.