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18 September 2026
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Something unusual is happening in markets. The winners are pulling further ahead at an extraordinary pace. As return dispersion hits extreme levels, volatility is rising and the investing landscape is becoming harder to navigate.
It is almost impossible to identify a bubble in real time, and history shows they last far longer than we think, giving investors (perhaps misplaced) hope and short-sellers seemingly endless pain before the share price collapses.
Investor focus is turning increasingly to AI-related risks: is it a bubble about to burst, tipping the US into recession? Or is it the onset of a third industrial revolution? And what would either scenario mean for markets?
This gives comprehensive data on more than 100 years of boom and bust cycles on the US stock market - how the market performed during these cycles, where the current AI uptick sits, and what the future may hold.
One sign of today's speculative market froth is that retail investors are winning, and winning big. It bears remarkable similarities to 1929 and 1999, and this story may not have a happy ending either.
The Australian stock market has had almost 40 dips of 10% or more since 1920, with many of these triggered by weakness in the US. What would have happened in each case had you 'bought the dip'?
Every bubble is unique in its form and duration, yet they all share common qualities and stages. As for the current bubble in AI and quality stocks, we’ve had the displacement and the euphoria. Now for the distress.
Ancient Stoic philosophers had an idea called 'premeditatio malorum', that involves considering some of the worst things that can happen to you as a way of immunising yourself against them. It can be a useful tool for investors too.
Given the last decade delivered phenomenal stockmarket returns, investors should expect the next decade to prove more challenging. However, 'value' stocks are cheap, providing compelling opportunities for contrarian investors.
Increases in commodity prices have fuelled global inflation while benefiting commodities exporters like Australia. Oftentimes, booms lead to busts and investors need to get the timing right on pricing cycles to be successful.
There are enough negative factors in play to suggest great caution with asset allocation in portfolios, as a wonderful run of results for investors came to an end in 2018. Here are four common factors in market collapses.
Investors are complacent and expect double-digit profit growth to continue for many years, but the market consensus for EPS growth is now in dangerous territory with more downside potential than upside.
Fear of running out has become a defining retirement anxiety. Why do some retirees die with substantial wealth while others deplete their nest egg? Evidence suggests the answer is more complicated than we think.
Conventional wisdom encourages retirees to preserve superannuation. But if those likely to qualify for the Age Pension later in life spend a little more today, it may deliver higher lifetime income and a more stable retirement.
Tax rules have changed, but many investors are still using yesterday’s strategies. Insurance bonds may offer advantages for those seeking greater control, tax efficiency and certainty about their wealth.
Treasury’s latest CGT reform draft delivers a win for testamentary trusts and deceased estates, exempting estate-derived gains from the 30% floor. However, questions on death and divorce rollovers remain unresolved.
Reversionary pensions have long been a staple of SMSF estate planning, but are they still the best option? Meg Heffron revisits a once-clear favourite and asks whether changing super rules have shifted the balance.
The 4% rule has long been retirement's gold standard. But after a difficult period for investors, fresh analysis suggests a more conservative approach may significantly improve the chances of making savings last.