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Sunday, 17 November 2019
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Global central banks are delivering a sugar hit that markets are relying on, but it is unsustainable. Interest rates cannot continue to be cut into negative territory forever.
Profits results in August 2019 were overall poor, and other factors are in play that influence share prices. It is difficult to jump aboard a profit announcement and make money in the short term.
Think you can pick winners? A minority of listed Australian companies make a profit and most are speculative stocks that will eventually disappear, taking the dreams and money of investors with them.
If an investor had been living on the moon or under a rock for a year and returned on 30 June 2019, on seeing their portfolio, they would have thought it was a delightful year full of good news.
Australian bond rates are now lower than during recessions and depressions of the past, but it's not driven by local fundamentals. The world of interest rates is in a place it's never been before in history.
Total returns from the local stock market have averaged 10.5% per year since Federation, with 12% p.a. under right-leaning governments and 8% p.a. under left-leaning governments. But it's mainly luck.
The pre-Boomer generations faced global wars and depressions, but Australians born after 1946 have enjoyed prosperity. Superannuation, education, strong markets and surging property prices locked in gains.
Young woment are showing increasing confidence in the sharemarket, promising a better future than the Boomers and Gen X women who hold significantly less assets than males of their generation.
A fund manager that can short sell stocks with weak investment characteristics while reinvesting the proceeds in long positions in preferred stocks has a high degree of flexibility.
Prolonging a recovery with stimulus could lead to a worse slump later. Even today, policymakers are haunted by actions taken in 1937 which led to a loss of production and jobs and a falling GDP.
Our annual scorecard for Australian banks shows earnings were hit by remediation costs and slow credit growth, but they are in good health and look attractive versus other listed companies.
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Firstlinks articles are collected in Pandora, Australia's national archive.