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18 February 2026
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Here's a detailed look at how current valuations and profit forecasts for the S&P 500 stack up versus history. The answer? Both seem excessive, making the market vulnerable to a correction or worse.
For decades, cyclically adjusted P/E ratios have been a common and widely accepted gauge of market valuation. But as the financial landscape continues to evolve, so too must our tools for understanding it.
There are pockets of bubble pricing in some assets that can pop at any time, but overall, valuations are frothy but prices of most companies can be sustained if not hit by rising bond rates.
Sticking to a long-term ‘set and forget’ asset allocation plan forgets those close to or in the retirement phase. Further, we are at a point where prospective returns in all markets are lower.
The widely-used cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) is at historic and relative highs in the US. The co-inventor of CAPE, Robert Shiller, is advising not to give too much weight to US equities.
What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
We don’t have a housing shortage; we have housing misallocation. This explores why so many bedrooms go unused, what’s been tried before, and five things to unlock housing capacity – no new building required.
Nearly all the indicators an investor would look for suggest that this secular bull market is approaching its end. My models forecast that the US is set for 0% annual returns over the next decade.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Stocks bounced hard off April lows, gold hit record highs and even bonds gained – 2025 was a year where it was hard not to make money. This breaks down the year and how to best position portfolios for 2026 and beyond.