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Market Expectations

1-7 out of 7 results.

ASX tool for interest rates bets needs an overhaul

News outlets and RBA watchers use a handy tool from the ASX to gauge market predictions for the RBA cash rate. Yet the tool has an obvious flaw that needs to be fixed to better reflect current monetary policy.

Is the market wrong on AI and China?

The conventional academic view is that markets are efficient as they price in all available information effectively. Yet history shows the market can be wildly wrong on stocks, as may be the case with AI and China today.

It’s dismal: good news is bad news … and vice versa

Almost every economic data point or announcement can be interpreted as good news or bad news, which is confusing for investors looking for guidance. 'On the other hand' is a catchphrase of the dismal science.

Time to announce the X-factor for 2022

What is the X-factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2022? It's time to announce the winner.

It’s time to reveal the 2021 X-Factor in investment markets

For 40 years, recording the market's X-Factor has become an obsession. In weighing up four big candidates for the most likely X-Factor emerging from 2021 and likely to hit in 2022, there is a clear winner.

The Living Years Survey: Is this time different?

Many of our readers possess decades of investment experience. Let's share your lessons with those starting out, or is this time different, and your Living Years have left you 'prisoner to what you hold dear'?

What does the current yield curve tell us?

A range of factors determine interest rates, and the yield curve reflects expectations of the future. Even if interest rates look low, waiting to invest is attempting to outguess the market.

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Pros and cons of Labor's home batteries scheme

Labor has announced a $2.3 billion Cheaper Home Batteries Program, aimed at slashing the cost of home batteries. The goal is to turbocharge battery uptake, though practical difficulties may prevent that happening.

Howard Marks: the investing game has changed

The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 606 with weekend update

The boss of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, UniSuper’s John Pearce, says Trump has declared an economic war and he’ll be reducing his US stock exposure over time. Should you follow suit?

  • 10 April 2025

4 ways to take advantage of the market turmoil

Every crisis throws up opportunities. Here are ideas to capitalise on this one, including ‘overbalancing’ your portfolio in stocks, buying heavily discounted LICs, and cherry picking bombed out sectors like oil and gas.

An enlightened dividend path

While many chase high yields, true investment power lies in companies that steadily grow dividends. This strategy, rooted in patience and discipline, quietly compounds wealth and anchors investors through market turbulence.

Tariffs are a smokescreen to Trump's real endgame

Behind market volatility and tariff threats lies a deeper strategy. Trump’s real goal isn’t trade reform but managing America's massive debts, preserving bond market confidence, and preparing for potential QE.

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