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Market Psychology

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Noise cancelling for investors

A lot of the information at an investor's fingertips today has little long-term value. The modern investing greats are not united by access to faster information, but by their ability to filter out what doesn’t matter.

Shaky markets, steady mind

The uncertainty sowed by falling share markets can make investors panic and commit costly errors. Following the advice of an ex Navy SEAL commander can help you stay composed and focus on what matters.

The butterfly effect, index funds, and the rise of mega caps

Index fund inflows to the US market are relatively tiny. Yet a new research paper suggests that they have distorted the size of the market's largest stocks to a surprising degree.

Irrational exuberance: is history repeating?

The widely-quoted Shiller P/E measure of the S&P500 now stands well above its long-term average, but is this a reliable signal that the US market is seriously overpriced?

Market psychology, emotions and ... more emotions

An investor’s fundamental investment process should be adapted to take account of the psychology and emotion involved in making such decisions, including a disciplined approach to entering and exiting positions.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?

Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 627 with weekend update

This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.

  • 4 September 2025

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