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6 October 2025
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We are trading through one of history's most confounding market environments. One day, financial headlines warn of doomsday scenarios. The next, they celebrate a new golden age. How can investors keep a clear head?
Every successful fund manager suffers periods of underperformance, and investors who jump from fund to fund chasing results are likely to do badly. Selecting a manager is a long-term decision but what else?
Fund performance varies over time. A fund may have strong capability and perform well over time, but it may fail the performance test at some point. The YFYS reforms create unwelcome and unintended consequences.
The Government's performance test in the 'Your Future, Your Super' proposals is likely to prove ineffective and generate undesirable outcomes. It will distort how funds are managed and confuse members.
With the Retirement Income Review now in Treasury's hands, will the 'fact base' establish whether large super funds do better than the share index? The public evidence is not impressive.
A surprisingly small number of stocks usually drive index performance, and active managers who miss these few companies can struggle to perform and justify their active fees.
Investing with previous-year top performing fund managers and acting along with the crowd puts you on the wrong side of a zero-sum game. There may be a 'fear' premium for investing in out-of-favour styles.
As we approach the end of the financial year, don't put off selling the chronic under-performers that are weighing you and your investment portfolio down. Especially if you need an offset to some taxable capital gains.
This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.
An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.
LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.
Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?
Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?
This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.