Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 218

Big data reveals how retirees really live

The superannuation industry isn’t quite sure what a comfortable retirement is, even as it desperately works to help members achieve that elusive goal.

It’s no surprise given the complexity of the task, which is affected by lifespan, personal expectations, government legislation, savings rates, market performance and more.

Many different opinions

But the problem is that members are likely to become disengaged and lose trust when they read conflicting articles about how much they need to save such as:

  • A couple will need about $640,000 in super savings to have a comfortable retirement.
  • A couple that saves at least $1 million in super will only generate about two-thirds of their pre-retirement income.
  • A couple needs about $1.5 million in super to generate an income equivalent to average weekly earnings.
  • A professional couple will need about $2 million in super at retirement.

These numbers stand in stark contrast to the median super balance at retirement (for those aged 60 to 64 years of age) of just $100,000 for men and $28,000 for women. Whatever estimate is chosen for a comfortable retirement, it’s out of touch for at least half the population.

The current crop of widely-ranging estimates also leaves much to be desired for wealthier Australians. Super accounts for just a small component of net household wealth according to the Productivity Commission and wealthier people tend to have more assets outside of super. It’s just not possible for super funds to estimate the level of super their members require when they don’t know the level of non-super assets they have and how they’re being used.

The amounts many Australians actually spend

Milliman’s quarterly Retirement Expectations and Spending Profiles (ESP) provide that type of information by analysing 300,000-plus retirees’ spending data.

The Retirement ESP shows that Australians aged 65 to 69 spend a median of just $31,068 (from all sources including super, non-super savings and government benefits) each year. To fund this expenditure with 75% certainty would require a superannuation balance of approximately $130,000 invested in a balanced fund. This also includes the substantial contribution of the age pension (set at a maximum of $20,745 a year, the maximum basic rate for a single excluding supplements), which funds a major portion of retirement income.

This isn’t to say that $130,000 should be a goal. It shows that even small differences in savings can have a hugely positive impact on members’ actual retirement lifestyles. This is the basis for true engagement.

More detailed market segmentation also reveals the behaviour of retirees by wealth bands, age, singles versus couples, location, as well as showing their essential versus discretionary spending and how it changes through retirement.

Retirement and Expectations Spending Profiles

This type of quality data is crucial given most people will not seek personal financial advice. However, data is just one component of delivering a personalised retirement experience. A combination of data and analysis can provide a sophisticated profile that can ultimately underpin and deliver the right products to the right members at the right time.

Each member must ultimately define their own comfortable retirement but it’s only by understanding their reality that super funds can help them achieve it.

 

Wade Matterson is a Principal, Senior Consultant, and leader of Milliman’s Australian Financial Risk Management practice and a fellow of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia. Read more about the Milliman Retirement ESP here. This article is general advice only as it does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person.

  •   7 September 2017
  • 1
  •      
  •   

RELATED ARTICLES

What financial risks do retirees face?

Falling home ownership: the elephant in the super retirement room

20k now or 50k later? What’s driving decisions to withdraw super?

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Building a lazy ETF portfolio in 2026

What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.

Get set for a bumpy 2026

At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.

Meg on SMSFs: First glimpse of revised Division 296 tax

Treasury has released draft legislation for a new version of the controversial $3 million super tax. It's a significant improvement on the original proposal but there are some stings in the tail.

Ray Dalio on 2025’s real story, Trump, and what’s next

The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.

10 fearless forecasts for 2026

The predictions include dividends will outstrip growth as a source of Australian equity returns, US market performance will be underwhelming, while US government bonds will beat gold.

13 million spare bedrooms: Rethinking Australia’s housing shortfall

We don’t have a housing shortage; we have housing misallocation. This explores why so many bedrooms go unused, what’s been tried before, and five things to unlock housing capacity – no new building required.

Latest Updates

3 ways to fix Australia’s affordability crisis

Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.

Superannuation

The Division 296 tax is still a quasi-wealth tax

The latest draft legislation may be an improvement but it still has the whiff of a wealth tax about it. The question remains whether a golden opportunity for simpler and fairer super tax reform has been missed.

Superannuation

Is it really ‘your’ super fund?

Your super isn’t a bank account you own; it’s a trust you merely benefit from. So why would the Division 296 tax you personally on assets, income and gains you legally don’t own?

Shares

Inflation is the biggest destroyer of wealth

Inflation consistently undermines wealth, even in low-inflation environments. Whether or not it returns to target, investors must protect portfolios from its compounding impact on future living standards.

Shares

Picking the next sector winner

Global equity markets have experienced stellar returns in 2024 and 2025 led, in large part, by the boom in AI. Which sector could be the next star in global markets? This names three future winners.

Infrastructure

What investors should expect when investing in infrastructure: yield

The case for listed infrastructure is built on stable earnings and cash flows, which have sustained 4% dividend yields across cycles and supported consistent, inflation-linked long-term returns.

Investment strategies

Valuing AI: Extreme bubble, new golden era, or both

The US stock market sits in prolonged bubble territory, driven by AI enthusiasm. History suggests eventual mean reversion, reminding investors to weigh potential risks against current market optimism.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2026 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.