Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Register

21 July 2025

Home / White Papers 2023

Economic outlook: A mixed picture for global growth in 2024

Foreword by Martin Romo, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer, Capital Group

Prepare for changes in the investing climate

Heading into 2024, it’s difficult to remember another time when the outlook was so uncertain. Recession or expansion? Inflation or deflation? Higher interest rates or lower? Take your pick and you will find a pundit arguing for each scenario as if it was a foregone conclusion.

As a long-term investor, I prefer to focus on larger trends, events that may shape not just the next year, but the next decade or more. I like to use the analogy of the weather report vs. long-term weather patterns. While many others are concerned about the near-term forecast, I am looking for signs of large-scale change —events and trends that have the potential to change companies, industries, economies and the world.

Along those lines, here are some questions we are asking today: How might rapid advancements in artificial intelligence alter the way companies do business? And which companies are positioned to win the AI race? Will electricity, wind and solar power displace fossil fuels as our primary source of energy? And how long could that process take? In the bond market, with US Treasury yields near 16-year highs, are we at the start of a historic opportunity as real income returns to the fixed income universe?

On the other hand, we must be wary of gathering storm clouds. Will rising government debt levels lead to lower economic growth rates? How might worsening tensions between the US and China affect global trade? What is the risk that wars in Ukraine and Israel will spill into wider fields of conflict? And, in a pivotal election year, will market volatility keep nervous investors on the sidelines?

We don’t pretend to have all the answers, but it’s our job to explore them through exhaustive bottom-up, fundamental research. Large-scale change can bring a high degree of volatility, but also unprecedented opportunities. That’s prime time for active investing.

Against this backdrop, I invite you to read and share our 2024 Outlook report.

Download the full paper

 


 

Leave a Comment:
Firstlinks is sponsored by:
banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Raising the GST to 15%

Treasurer Jim Chalmers aims to tackle tax reform but faces challenges. Previous reviews struggled due to political sensitivities, highlighting the need for comprehensive and politically feasible change.

7 examples of how the new super tax will be calculated

You've no doubt heard about Division 296. These case studies show what people at various levels above the $3 million threshold might need to pay the ATO, with examples ranging from under $500 to more than $35,000.

The revolt against Baby Boomer wealth

The $3m super tax could be put down to the Government needing money and the wealthy being easy targets. It’s deeper than that though and this looks at the factors behind the policy and why more taxes on the wealthy are coming.

Are franking credits hurting Australia’s economy?

Business investment and per capita GDP have languished over the past decade and the Labor Government is conducting inquiries to find out why. Franking credits should be part of the debate about our stalling economy.

Here's what should replace the $3 million super tax

With Div. 296 looming, is there a smarter way to tax superannuation? This proposes a fairer, income-linked alternative that respects compounding, ensures predictability, and avoids taxing unrealised capital gains. 

The rubbery numbers behind super tax concessions

In selling the super tax, Labor has repeated Treasury claims of there being $50 billion in super tax concessions annually, mostly flowing to high-income earners. This figure is vastly overstated.

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

Trump's US dollar assault is fuelling CBA's rise

Australian-based investors have been perplexed by the steep rise in CBA's share price But it's becoming clear that US funds are buying into our largest bank as a hedge against potential QE and further falls in the US dollar.

Investment strategies

With markets near record highs, here's what you should do with your portfolio

Markets have weathered geopolitical turmoil, hitting near record highs. Investors face tough decisions on valuations, asset concentration, and strategic portfolio rebalancing for risk control and future returns.

Property

Soaring house prices may be locking people into marriages

Soaring house prices are deepening Australia's cost of living crisis - and possibly distorting marriage decisions. New research links unexpected price changes to whether couples separate or silently struggle together.

Investment strategies

Google is facing 'the innovator's dilemma'

Artificial intelligence is forcing Google to rethink search - and its future. As usage shifts and rivals close in, will it adapt in time, or become a cautionary tale of disrupted disruptors?

Investment strategies

Study supports what many suspected about passive investing

The surge in passive investing doesn’t just mirror the market—it shapes it, often amplifying the rise of the largest firms and creating new risks and opportunities. For investors, understanding these effects is essential.

Property

Should we dump stamp duties for land taxes?

Economists have long flagged the idea of swapping property taxes for land taxes for fairness and equity reasons. This looks at why what seems fairer may not deliver the outcomes that we expect.

Investing

Being human means being a bad investor

Many of the behaviours that have made humans such a successful species also make it difficult for us to be good, long-term investors. The key to better decision making is to understand what makes us human and adapt.

Sponsors

Alliances

Site Map

About Firstlinks

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.