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Thursday, 13 August 2020
Recently trending After 30 years of investing, I prefer to skip this partyAustralian house prices: Part 2, the bigger picture How to handle the riskiest company results in historyAustralian house prices: Part 1, how worried should we be?Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 369
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The notion of the '4% rule' for drawing retirement income was devised in a much different economic environment than today. 'Safe' withdrawal rates may not be safe enough if certainty is required.
The RBA follows a fairly standard formula when drafting its interest rate announcements each month and a keen observer might detect a change in view before an actual change in interest rates.
A final look at the 'January effect' to analyse whether the market's first month performance predicts the share market's likely year-end returns, and why Australia is different from the US.
Recent economic volatility in China could signal an important social shift - one which could actually drive China’s future growth and transform the country’s economic model.
Due to the complexity of superannuation law, it can be easy for SMSF trustees to miss out on some opportunities, including the use of reversionary pensions for tax and estate planning benefits.
Sri Lanka, Bali and Singapore do not receive the focus of their Asian neighbours in China, India and Japan, but they are undergoing fascinating changes which warrant a closer and more personal visit.
Eventually, prices become so extreme they bear no relationship to reality, and a bubble forms. I believe we are there today, not for all stocks but for many in the technology space.
There is good reason to believe the negatives will continue to outweigh the positives over the next 12 to 18 months. There is more concern about house prices than the short-term indicators suggest.
It is better to miss a results bounce and buy after the company has delivered than it is to step on a landmine. With such uncertainty, avoid FOMO by following these result season investing tips.
Three key indicators are useful for predicting the short-term outlook for house prices, although tighter lockdowns make the outlook gloomier. There is enough doubt to create cause for concern.
Imagine you had perfect foresight about COVID-19 at the start of the year. You correctly foresaw that the global pandemic would kill over 700,000 among 20 million infections by August. In Australia, borders would close, cities would be locked down, most mortgagors would be on income support and companies would be allowed to trade while insolvent. You then had to guess how much the stock market would fall. Would you say about 10%?
Sometimes the simplest ideas are the best. The founders of Afterpay stumbled on the attraction for consumers of paying by instalments, and now retailers must offer the facility or lose business.