Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.
Thursday, 13 August 2020
Recently trending After 30 years of investing, I prefer to skip this partyAustralian house prices: Part 2, the bigger picture How to handle the riskiest company results in historyAustralian house prices: Part 1, how worried should we be?Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 369
Vishal Teckchandani, Content Editor, nabtrade: "Exceptional investment literature of the highest possible quality."
Reader: " Finding a truly independent and interesting read has been magical for me. Please keep it up and don't change!"
Reader: "Congratulations on a great focussed news source. Australia has a dearth of good quality unbiased financial and wealth management news."
Reader: "Carry on as you are - well done. The average investor/SMSF trustee needs all the help they can get."
Reader: "I subscribe to two newsletters. This is my first read of the week. Thank you. Excellent and please keep up the good work!"
Reader: "It's excellent so please don't pollute the content with boring mainstream financial 'waffle' and adverts for stuff we don't want!"
John Egan, Egan Associates: "My heartiest congratulations. Your panel of contributors is very impressive and keep your readers fully informed."
Reader: "I can quickly sort the items that I am interested in, then research them more fully. It is also a regular reminder that I need to do this."
Reader: "Keep it up - the independence is refreshing and is demonstrated by the variety of well credentialed commentators."
Don Stammer, leading Australian economist: "Congratulations to all associated. It deserves the good following it has."
David Goldschmidt, Chartered Accountant: "I find this a really excellent newsletter. The best I get. Keep up the good work!"
Reader: "Is one of very few places an investor can go and not have product rammed down their throat. Love your work!"
Reader: "Great resource. Cuffelinks is STILL the one and only weekly newsletter I regularly read."
Reader: "Best innovation I have seen whilst an investor for 25 years. The writers are brilliant. A great publication which I look forward to."
Reader: "The BEST in the game because of diversity and not aligned to financial products. Stands above all the noise."
Australian Investors Association: "Australia's foremost independent financial newsletter for professionals and self-directed investors."
Steve: "The best that comes into our world each week. This is the only one that is never, ever canned before fully being reviewed by yours truly."
Andrew Buchan, Partner, HLB Mann Judd: "I have told you a thousand times it's the best newsletter."
Scott Pape, author of The Barefoot Investor: "I'm an avid reader of Cuffelinks. Thanks for the wonderful resource you have here, it really is first class."
Eleanor Dartnall, AFA Adviser of the Year, 2014: "Our clients love your newsletter. Your articles are avidly read by advisers and they learn a great deal."
Jonathan Hoyle, CEO, Stanford Brown: "A fabulous publication. The only must-read weekly publication for the Australian wealth management industry."
John Pearce, Chief Investment Officer, Unisuper: "Out of the (many many) investmentrelated emails I get, Cuffelinks is one that I always open."
Ian Silk, CEO, AustralianSuper: "It has become part of my required reading: quality thinking, and (mercifully) to the point."
Ian Kelly, CFP, BTACS Financial Services: "Probably the best source of commentary and information I have seen over the past 20 years."
Reader: "Love it, just keep doing what you are doing. It is the right length too, any longer and it might become a bit overwhelming."
Rob Henshaw: "When I open my computer each day it's the first link I click - a really great read."
Reader: "An island of professionalism in an ocean of shallow self-interest. Well done!"
Noel Whittaker, author and financial adviser: "A fabulous weekly newsletter that is packed full of independent financial advice."
Listed property trusts have outperformed shares for four of the last five years but after property price increases driven by foreign buyers, what might the future bring?
Although companies adhere to a continuous disclosure regime, it's hard to replace the value of company visits for active managers, who glean insights and understandings that financial reports and ASX statements fail to convey.
Too many variables affect the market and economies, and most are unforeseeable or overly complex to understand. Instead of wasting time on such macro issues, it's better to focus on your investment edge.
While investors like receiving healthy dividends, it's money that the company can then no longer use for capital growth. Less can really be more if there are better growth prospects with lower dividends.
While the evidence points to Australia's housing market coming off the boil, prices are still being supported by Chinese families assisting their children in Australia to buy a house or apartment.
The future of pension and superannuation systems will involve innovation in product design, improvements in regulation, and the use of smarter investment strategies to achieve the long-term goal of funding retirement.
Eventually, prices become so extreme they bear no relationship to reality, and a bubble forms. I believe we are there today, not for all stocks but for many in the technology space.
There is good reason to believe the negatives will continue to outweigh the positives over the next 12 to 18 months. There is more concern about house prices than the short-term indicators suggest.
It is better to miss a results bounce and buy after the company has delivered than it is to step on a landmine. With such uncertainty, avoid FOMO by following these result season investing tips.
Three key indicators are useful for predicting the short-term outlook for house prices, although tighter lockdowns make the outlook gloomier. There is enough doubt to create cause for concern.
Imagine you had perfect foresight about COVID-19 at the start of the year. You correctly foresaw that the global pandemic would kill over 700,000 among 20 million infections by August. In Australia, borders would close, cities would be locked down, most mortgagors would be on income support and companies would be allowed to trade while insolvent. You then had to guess how much the stock market would fall. Would you say about 10%?
Sometimes the simplest ideas are the best. The founders of Afterpay stumbled on the attraction for consumers of paying by instalments, and now retailers must offer the facility or lose business.