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Tuesday, 21 September 2021
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Roger Montgomery on savage price falls, pension changes coming, lack of action on renewables, banks joining fintechs, real returns, CRIOs and horses.
We are seeing rapid one-day movements in some large stocks of 10% to 20%, especially those that were 'priced for perfection'. What is causing this, and does it present a threat or an opportunity in a portfolio?
With the new pension rules, the magic number is 7.8%. If a pensioner sells an asset to fund an improvement in the family home, the pension may increase $7,800 pa for every $100,000 over the assets test.
The renewables industry is hampered by the combination of a shallow venture capital market and capital-intensive technology. The recent power outages in South Australia did not help.
Although many people regard FinTechs as threats to banks and large incumbents, most of the new kids on the block see the value in forming beneficial relationships and cooperating rather than competing.
Meeting real return objectives in a low growth environment is a challenge. Investors will need to use cyclical volatility to their advantage by riding the upside and, importantly, avoiding the falls.
Super funds have Chief Investment Officers charged with optimising investment returns, but should they also appoint a Chief Retirement Income Officer (CRIO) to achieve the best retirement outcomes?
Before you jump in and invest in that racehorse with its potential Group 1 winnings and breeding credentials, here is a reality check on your dreams of fame and fortune from someone in the know.
Who knew? With some surprise results, the Government is on unexpected firm ground in asking people to draw on all their assets in retirement, although the comments show what feisty and informed readers we have.
The RBA Governor says rising house prices are due to "the design of our taxation and social security systems". The OECD says "the prolonged boom in house prices has inflated the wealth of many pensioners without impacting their pension eligibility." What's your view?
It's a remarkable statistic. In any year since 1875, if you had invested in the Australian stock index, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods.
Never stand between Australian households and an uncapped government programme with $3 billion in ‘free money’ to build or renovate their homes. But excess supply is coming with an absence of net migration.
Picking macro trends is difficult. What may seem logical and compelling one minute may completely change a few months later. There are better rewards from focussing on identifying the best companies at good prices.
Some high-quality companies have emerged even stronger since the onset of COVID and are well placed for outperformance. We call these the ‘COVID Opportunists’ as they are now dominating their specific sectors.