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21 May 2022
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At any point in the investment cycle, there are experts waving red flags warning of market falls. In the depths of the GFC, few brave souls were buying the bargains while most investors were still looking for the exit amid fears of further losses.
Boom-bust cycles are inevitable and at some point, there will be a market correction although different to the GFC. Many of the signs of excess that normally precede severe and prolonged bear markets are not present yet.
At any point in the cycle, the portfolios of either the optimists or the pessimists perform better. Despite stretched valuations and rising rates, the optimists are winning at the moment.
The popular 'cyclically-adjusted' Shiller PE ratio is historically high and this is often quoted as a sign the market is overvalued, but consider the impact of the current low interest rates.
Value investing compares the estimated intrinsic value of a company with its market value, and although growth and value go in cycles, there are signs that some value stocks are at attractive levels.
Value investing is not just about a low P/E or EV/EBITDA. Other metrics need to be considered to prevent falling into a value trap, as well as what challenges are facing the industry and the time frame allowed for success.
The S&P500 experiences a one-month return of -10% or worse only 1.5% of the time. Most drawdowns were much shallower and occur at higher frequencies, but are they worth spending money to protect against?
A one sentence stream of consciousness born after listening to too many 'what-ifs' and 'on-the-other-hands' will leave you sitting firmly on the fence, which is neither a comfortable nor useful position.
Every successful fund manager suffers periods of underperformance, and investors who jump from fund to fund chasing results are likely to do badly. Selecting a manager is a long-term decision but what else?
In almost 1,000 responses, our readers differ in voting intentions versus polling of the general population, but they have little doubt who will win and there is widespread disappointment with our politics.
Conservative investors who want the greater capital security of bonds can now lock in 5% but they should stay at the higher end of credit quality. Rises in rates and defaults mean it's not as easy as it looks.
In the last decade, ETFs have become a mainstay of many portfolios, with broad market access to most asset types, as well as a wide array of sectors and themes. Is there a favourite of a CEO who oversees 30 funds?
Believe it or not, betting agencies are in the business of making money, not predicting outcomes. Is there anything we can learn from the current odds on the election results?
Single-member SMSFs face challenges where the eventual beneficiaries (or support team in the event of incapacity) will be the member’s adult children. Even worse, what happens if one or more of the children live overseas?