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Edition: 217

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Edition 217

  • 1 September 2017

At any point in the investment cycle, there are experts waving red flags warning of market falls. In the depths of the GFC, few brave souls were buying the bargains while most investors were still looking for the exit amid fears of further losses.

GFC lessons 10 years on: can it happen again?

Boom-bust cycles are inevitable and at some point, there will be a market correction although different to the GFC. Many of the signs of excess that normally precede severe and prolonged bear markets are not present yet.

To zig or to zag?

At any point in the cycle, the portfolios of either the optimists or the pessimists perform better. Despite stretched valuations and rising rates, the optimists are winning at the moment.

What is the Shiller PE ratio telling us?

The popular 'cyclically-adjusted' Shiller PE ratio is historically high and this is often quoted as a sign the market is overvalued, but consider the impact of the current low interest rates.

The potential for a value revival

Value investing compares the estimated intrinsic value of a company with its market value, and although growth and value go in cycles, there are signs that some value stocks are at attractive levels.

Five ways to avoid the 'value trap'

Value investing is not just about a low P/E or EV/EBITDA. Other metrics need to be considered to prevent falling into a value trap, as well as what challenges are facing the industry and the time frame allowed for success.

Protecting from downturns using options

The S&P500 experiences a one-month return of -10% or worse only 1.5% of the time. Most drawdowns were much shallower and occur at higher frequencies, but are they worth spending money to protect against?

This time it really is different … or not

A one sentence stream of consciousness born after listening to too many 'what-ifs' and 'on-the-other-hands' will leave you sitting firmly on the fence, which is neither a comfortable nor useful position.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?

Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 627 with weekend update

This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.

  • 4 September 2025

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