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Shane Oliver

Will house prices crash?

Absent much higher interest rates and or unemployment, a house price crash in Australia looks unlikely. However, a failure to boost affordability risks a further slide in home ownership and rising inequality.

The 9 most important things I've learned about investing over 40 years

The nine lessons include there is always a cycle, the crowd gets it wrong at extremes, what you pay for an investment matters a lot, markets don’t learn, and you need to know yourself to be a good investor.

Gross National Happiness?

Despite being richer, surveyed measures of happiness have been flat to falling in Australia. Some suggest we should focus less on GDP and more on broader measures of wellbeing, though there are pros and cons to that approach.

Three reasons why optimism pays for investors

News nowadays seems to have become even more negative with constant stories of disasters, conflict, wrongdoing, grievance and loss. These risks can’t be ignored yet the history of investing suggests that pessimism doesn’t pay.

A tonic for turbulent times: my nine tips for investing

Investing is often portrayed as unapproachably complex. Can it be distilled into nine tips? An economist with 35 years of experience through numerous market cycles and events has given it a shot.

Federal Budget 2022: A “magic election pudding”

A budget windfall has allowed both more spending and lower budget deficits. But relying on nominal economic growth to reduce the deficit runs the risk that it could take a very long time to get debt levels back down.

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Investing

Legendary investor: markets are less efficient and social media is the big culprit

Despite an explosion in data, investment titan, Cliff Asness, believes the market has become less efficient, not more, over his 34-year career. He explains why, and how you can take advantage of it.

Property

A housing market that I'd like to see

Our housing system isn't working, with prices and rents growing faster than wages, longer public housing waiting lists and more people are experiencing homelessness. Here are five ways to ease the crisis.

Retirement

It isn’t just the rich who will pay more for aged care

The Government has introduced the biggest changes to aged care in almost 30 years. While the message has been that “wealthy Australians will pay more for aged care”, it seems that most people will pay more, some a lot more.

SMSF strategies

Meg on SMSFs: At last, movement on legacy pensions

Draft regulations released this week finally provide the framework for unwinding legacy pensions cleanly and simply for members who choose to do so. There are some caveats though, including a time limit.

Investment strategies

A megatrend hiding in plain sight: defence

Global defence spending has inflected higher, bringing huge opportunity to a group of companies that have already outperformed broader market indices over the long-term.

Investment strategies

The butterfly effect, index funds, and the rise of mega caps

Index fund inflows to the US market are relatively tiny. Yet a new research paper suggests that they have distorted the size of the market's largest stocks to a surprising degree.

Investment strategies

Options for investors who don't want to sell overpriced banks

The run-up in Australian bank stocks has some investors confounded: do they continue to hold them in expectation of further gains - or sell and take profits now? There are alternative options to consider.

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