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30 January 2026
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Roger Montgomery on valuing a company, emotions in investing, underperforming fund managers, default funds needed for the disengaged, and a bond guy's view of equities.
Investors who follow the herd invariably end up buying near the tops when everybody else is buying and selling near the bottom. Investors need to resist the temptation to get caught up in the hype of the daily news and noise.
If you’re not prepared to select a manager and hang in there for at least three years and preferably five, index and save yourself some fees. You should expect underperformance at some time in the investment cycle.
Price is what you pay for something, but value is what you will receive and the value will ultimately determine your return. Your job as an investor then, is to own shares that are worth more than you paid for them.
While it would be preferable if disengaged investors became more aware of their superannuation, it is an unrealistic expectation. A degree of paternalism is necessary in the design of defaults.
Simple maths helps explain why the share market is so volatile. It’s not that it’s an irrational, casino-like beast that bucks and dives for no good reason. It’s a long duration market reacting to changes.
What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.
At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.
Treasury has released draft legislation for a new version of the controversial $3 million super tax. It's a significant improvement on the original proposal but there are some stings in the tail.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The predictions include dividends will outstrip growth as a source of Australian equity returns, US market performance will be underwhelming, while US government bonds will beat gold.
We don’t have a housing shortage; we have housing misallocation. This explores why so many bedrooms go unused, what’s been tried before, and five things to unlock housing capacity – no new building required.