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28 February 2026
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Roger Montgomery on valuing a company, emotions in investing, underperforming fund managers, default funds needed for the disengaged, and a bond guy's view of equities.
Investors who follow the herd invariably end up buying near the tops when everybody else is buying and selling near the bottom. Investors need to resist the temptation to get caught up in the hype of the daily news and noise.
If you’re not prepared to select a manager and hang in there for at least three years and preferably five, index and save yourself some fees. You should expect underperformance at some time in the investment cycle.
Price is what you pay for something, but value is what you will receive and the value will ultimately determine your return. Your job as an investor then, is to own shares that are worth more than you paid for them.
While it would be preferable if disengaged investors became more aware of their superannuation, it is an unrealistic expectation. A degree of paternalism is necessary in the design of defaults.
Simple maths helps explain why the share market is so volatile. It’s not that it’s an irrational, casino-like beast that bucks and dives for no good reason. It’s a long duration market reacting to changes.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.